ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

FC Porto vs Napoli

FC Porto Home · Elo 1,731
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Napoli Away · Elo 1,639
Estádio do Dragão, Porto Referee: Michael Oliver Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Porto win
FC Porto winPick
51.1%
Draw
29.4%
Napoli win
19.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

FC Porto history83 matches
Napoli history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Porto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Porto are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,731 against 1,639. On rating alone FC Porto would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.70 goals a game over 83 matches for FC Porto, against 1.55 over 78 for Napoli.

  • FC Porto concede fewer

    FC Porto concede 0.75 a game, Napoli 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of FC Porto matches, against 47% for Napoli. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Porto
Napoli
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1730.8
ELO
1638.6
83
ELO · Matches
78
1730.8
Current Team ELO
1638.6
1638.6
Current Opponent ELO
1730.8
92.25
Current ELO Difference
-92.25
0.63
Expected score
0.37
83
History Matches
78
0.14
Residual Mean
0.10
61.32
Overperformance
58.20
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.20
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
78
2.20
PPG
1.87
67.5%
Win rate
53.8%
18.1%
Draw rate
25.6%
14.5%
Loss rate
20.5%
72.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
47.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
32
2.34
PPG
1.50
70.5%
Win rate
40.6%
22.7%
Draw rate
28.1%
6.8%
Loss rate
31.3%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.4%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
44
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.70
Goals for per game
1.55
89.2%
Scoring rate
82.1%
43.4%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.16
93.2%
Scoring rate
71.9%
45.5%
BTTS rate
40.6%
83
History Matches
78
1.70
Goals Mean
1.55
1.05
Goals Std
1.11
89.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
53.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
1.03
50.6%
Conceding rate
62.8%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.09
47.7%
Conceding rate
59.4%
83
History Matches
78
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.03
0.94
Conceded Std
1.06
15.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.5%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
49.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
52.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
49.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
52.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
49.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
78
0.78
Result entropy
0.92
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.51
22.24
Stability score
8.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
78
42
Lead Matches
41
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
82.9%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
16
42.9%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.02
Rest days
74.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.20
56
Normal Rest History Matches
51
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.39
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.00
42.75
Portability Score
56.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO92.25
PPG0.33
GF0.15
GA-0.28
PPG0.84
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.89
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score13.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate9.9%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate5.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range1.33
Portability Score-13.55
Rest days-1.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO92.25
Current Opponent ELO-92.25
Current ELO Difference184.5
Expected score0.26
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Porto

W
FC Porto4–0Estoril31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 68% · hit
W
FC Porto1–0Academico Viseu28 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 53% · hit
W
GIL Vicente0–1FC Porto24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Porto 51% · hit
L
FC Porto0–1PSV Eindhoven20 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 50% · missed
L
Real Betis3–2FC Porto14 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 40% · hit

Napoli

L
Juventus2–0Napoli1 Nov · away
Pick: Juventus 38% · hit
W
Monza1–4Napoli28 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli 51% · hit
D
Napoli3–3AS Roma24 Oct · home
Pick: AS Roma 39% · missed
W
Napoli4–3Bodo/Glimt20 Oct · home
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 44% · missed
L
Venezia1–0Napoli17 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli 47% · missed

About this match

FC Porto and Napoli meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FC Porto win 51.1%, draw 29.4%, Napoli win 19.4%. The pick is FC Porto win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.