ScoreProb
1st League - RS Bosnia & Herzegovina RS - 15 2026

Leotar vs Drina Zvornik

Leotar Home · Elo 1,572
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Drina Zvornik Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leotar win
Leotar winPick
44.9%
Draw
30.7%
Drina Zvornik win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Leotar history46 matches
Drina Zvornik history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Leotar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leotar are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,500. On rating alone Leotar would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.35 goals a game over 46 matches for Leotar, against 1.33 over 46 for Drina Zvornik.

  • Leotar concede fewer

    Leotar concede 0.72 a game, Drina Zvornik 1.09.

  • Drina Zvornik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    30% of Leotar matches, against 50% for Drina Zvornik. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leotar
Drina Zvornik
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1572.3
ELO
1499.6
46
ELO · Matches
46
1572.3
Current Team ELO
1499.6
1499.6
Current Opponent ELO
1572.3
72.78
Current ELO Difference
-72.78
0.60
Expected score
0.40
46
History Matches
46
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
55.15
Overperformance
49.84
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
0.30
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.61
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
46
1.52
PPG
1.30
37.0%
Win rate
37.0%
41.3%
Draw rate
19.6%
21.7%
Loss rate
43.5%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
24
1.86
PPG
0.67
50.0%
Win rate
12.5%
36.4%
Draw rate
29.2%
13.6%
Loss rate
58.3%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.33
67.4%
Scoring rate
63.0%
34.8%
BTTS rate
41.3%
1.91
Goals for per game
0.67
81.8%
Scoring rate
45.8%
40.9%
BTTS rate
41.7%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
46
1.35
Goals Mean
1.33
1.45
Goals Std
1.50
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.0%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.8%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.72
Goals against per game
1.09
47.8%
Conceding rate
67.4%
0.59
Goals against per game
1.38
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
46
0.72
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.92
Conceded Std
0.95
17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.6%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
46
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.01
3.07
Stability score
4.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
46
18
Lead Matches
12
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.92
7
Trailing Matches
12
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
160.9
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.17
26
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
0.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.77
Portability PPG Range
0.03
56.65
Portability Score
96.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO72.78
PPG0.22
GF0.02
GA-0.37
PPG1.20
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-1.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-40.29
Rest days83.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.23
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO72.78
Current Opponent ELO-72.78
Current ELO Difference145.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leotar

L
Famos Vojkovići1–0Leotar28 Oct · away
Pick: Famos Vojkovići 38% · hit
D
Slavija1–1Leotar24 Oct · away
Pick: Slavija 35% · missed
W
Leotar3–0Velež Nevesinje21 Oct · home
Pick: Leotar 54% · hit
W
Leotar1–0Laktaši17 Oct · home
Pick: Laktaši 40% · missed
D
Drina Zvornik2–2Leotar29 Aug · away
Pick: Drina Zvornik 36% · missed

Drina Zvornik

D
Drina Zvornik3–3FK Romanija Pale31 Oct · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 41% · missed
W
Drina Zvornik2–0FK Majevica Lopare24 Oct · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 66% · hit
W
Drina Zvornik4–0Famos Vojkovići17 Oct · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 45% · hit
D
Drina Zvornik2–2Leotar29 Aug · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leotar and Drina Zvornik meet in 1st League - RS on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Leotar win 44.9%, draw 30.7%, Drina Zvornik win 24.4%. The pick is Leotar win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.