ScoreProb
First League Bulgaria Round 13 2026

Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Levski Sofia Home · Elo 1,727
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSKA Sofia Away · Elo 1,657
Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Levski Sofia win
Levski Sofia winPick
51.6%
Draw
31.3%
CSKA Sofia win
17.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.3%
No54.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%

How much we know

Levski Sofia history88 matches
CSKA Sofia history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why Levski Sofia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Levski Sofia are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,727 against 1,657. On rating alone Levski Sofia would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Levski Sofia score more

    1.82 goals a game over 88 matches for Levski Sofia, against 1.58 over 83 for CSKA Sofia.

  • Levski Sofia concede fewer

    Levski Sofia concede 0.67 a game, CSKA Sofia 0.77.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Levski Sofia matches, against 45% for CSKA Sofia. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1727.1
ELO
1657.4
88
ELO · Matches
83
1727.1
Current Team ELO
1657.4
1657.4
Current Opponent ELO
1727.1
69.63
Current ELO Difference
-69.63
0.60
Expected score
0.40
88
History Matches
83
0.14
Residual Mean
0.10
61.40
Overperformance
58.10
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.80
0.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
2.10
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
83
2.05
PPG
1.94
59.1%
Win rate
56.6%
27.3%
Draw rate
24.1%
13.6%
Loss rate
19.3%
67.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.9%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
51
Matches
38
2.22
PPG
1.68
66.7%
Win rate
47.4%
21.6%
Draw rate
26.3%
11.8%
Loss rate
26.3%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
60.5%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.6%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
7.9%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
51
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.58
77.3%
Scoring rate
74.7%
39.8%
BTTS rate
39.8%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.24
80.4%
Scoring rate
65.8%
33.3%
BTTS rate
26.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
88
History Matches
83
1.82
Goals Mean
1.58
1.56
Goals Std
1.34
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.7%
52.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.0%
29.5%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
0.77
50.0%
Conceding rate
55.4%
0.57
Goals against per game
0.68
41.2%
Conceding rate
52.6%
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
88
History Matches
83
0.67
Conceded Mean
0.77
0.82
Conceded Std
0.87
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.7%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.8%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
0.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
83
0.85
Result entropy
0.89
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.75
14.72
Stability score
10.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
83
39
Lead Matches
35
87.2%
Lead Win Rate
88.6%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.92
11
Trailing Matches
15
63.6%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.86
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
9
2.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
55
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.60
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
5
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.60
2.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
11
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.44
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.43
48.04
Portability Score
53.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO69.63
PPG0.11
GF0.24
GA-0.10
PPG0.40
PPG0.53
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score4.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate23.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-5.20
Rest days-6.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.44
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO69.63
Current Opponent ELO-69.63
Current ELO Difference139.3
Expected score0.20
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Levski Sofia

D
Arda Kardzhali1–1Levski Sofia27 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 54% · missed
W
Plzen1–2Levski Sofia22 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 35% · hit
W
Spartak Pleven0–2Levski Sofia18 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 58% · hit
D
NEC Nijmegen1–1Levski Sofia15 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 51% · missed
L
AEK Athens FC4–0Levski Sofia26 Aug · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 45% · missed

CSKA Sofia

W
CSKA Sofia2–0Ludogorets26 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 43% · hit
D
FC Nordsjaelland2–2CSKA Sofia22 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia 44% · missed
W
Nesebar0–2CSKA Sofia18 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia 51% · hit
L
CSKA Sofia1–2Monaco15 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 59% · missed
W
CSKA Sofia3–1Cherno More Varna30 Aug · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 70% · hit

About this match

Levski Sofia and CSKA Sofia meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Levski Sofia win 51.6%, draw 31.3%, CSKA Sofia win 17.1%. The pick is Levski Sofia win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.1%. Both teams to score: 45.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.