ScoreProb
First League Bulgaria Round 13 2026

Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali

Spartak Varna Home · Elo 1,480
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arda Kardzhali Away · Elo 1,599
Stadion Spartak, Varna Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arda Kardzhali win
Spartak Varna win
23.8%
Draw
24.4%
Arda Kardzhali winPick
51.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Spartak Varna history71 matches
Arda Kardzhali history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Arda Kardzhali are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arda Kardzhali are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,480. On rating alone Arda Kardzhali would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Arda Kardzhali score more

    1.14 goals a game over 71 matches for Spartak Varna, against 1.34 over 83 for Arda Kardzhali.

  • Arda Kardzhali concede fewer

    Spartak Varna concede 1.56 a game, Arda Kardzhali 1.01.

  • Spartak Varna games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Spartak Varna matches, against 42% for Arda Kardzhali. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spartak Varna
Arda Kardzhali@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.7
ELO
1598.7
71
ELO · Matches
83
1479.7
Current Team ELO
1598.7
1598.7
Current Opponent ELO
1479.7
-119.0
Current ELO Difference
119.0
0.34
Expected score
0.66
71
History Matches
83
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
48.95
Overperformance
54.16
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.06
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
83
1.15
PPG
1.52
29.6%
Win rate
39.8%
26.8%
Draw rate
32.5%
43.7%
Loss rate
27.7%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
45
1.43
PPG
1.38
40.0%
Win rate
35.6%
22.9%
Draw rate
31.1%
37.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
35
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.34
69.0%
Scoring rate
68.7%
53.5%
BTTS rate
42.2%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
71.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
83
1.14
Goals Mean
1.34
1.19
Goals Std
1.29
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.7%
26.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.01
76.1%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.49
Goals against per game
1.18
71.4%
Conceding rate
73.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
83
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.40
Conceded Std
0.98
43.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.1%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.2%
1.49
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
83
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.78
2.16
Stability score
1.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
83
23
Lead Matches
24
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.89
28
Trailing Matches
18
14.3%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.74
Rest days
75.74
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
8
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.63
41
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
28
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
2.17
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
2.17
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
6
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.83
63.77
Portability Score
61.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-119.0
PPG-0.36
GF-0.20
GA0.55
PPG-1.00
PPG0.05
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.12
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.01
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score1.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score2.57
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match1.38
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-119.0
Current Opponent ELO119.0
Current ELO Difference-238.1
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spartak Varna

L
CSKA 19486–1Spartak Varna30 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA 1948 66% · hit
L
Dunav Ruse2–0Spartak Varna24 Oct · away
Pick: Dunav Ruse 42% · hit
W
Etar Veliko Tarnovo2–4Spartak Varna19 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Varna 38% · hit
D
Spartak Varna1–1Ludogorets30 Aug · home
Pick: Ludogorets 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arda Kardzhali

W
Arda Kardzhali2–1Septemvri Sofia2 Nov · home
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 62% · hit
D
Arda Kardzhali1–1Levski Sofia27 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Sofia 54% · missed
W
Spartak Plovdiv1–2Arda Kardzhali18 Oct · away
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 58% · hit
L
Ludogorets5–0Arda Kardzhali12 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets 53% · hit
W
Arda Kardzhali2–0Botev Vratsa31 Aug · home
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 64% · hit

About this match

Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Spartak, Varna. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Spartak Varna win 23.8%, draw 24.4%, Arda Kardzhali win 51.8%. The pick is Arda Kardzhali win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.