ScoreProb
Division Profesional - Clausura Paraguay Round 18 2026

Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

Libertad Asuncion Home · Elo 1,532
LIVE · 88'
0–1
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
Cerro Porteno Away · Elo 1,553
Dr. Nicolás Leoz, Asunción Referee: David Ojeda Pick published 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Libertad Asuncion win
Libertad Asuncion winPick
42.7%
Draw
26.8%
Cerro Porteno win
30.5%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

31'
GoalSergio Araujo
SubstitutionAgustín Manzur off · Hugo Fernandez on
45'
SubstitutionGustavo Aguilar off · Lucas Sanabria on
45'
47'
Yellow cardJosué Servín Leon
Yellow cardAlvaro Campuzado
60'
SubstitutionHugo Fernandez off · Ivan Franco on
62'
SubstitutionAlexis Ramón Fretes Lugo off · J. Estigarribia Meza on
62'
64'
Yellow cardGastón Giménez
69'
Yellow cardCesar Bobadilla
SubstitutionFederico Carrizo off · Marcelo Fernández on
73'
74'
SubstitutionSergio Araujo off · Mateo Klimowicz on
74'
SubstitutionJosué Servín Leon off · Gustavo Velázquez on
74'
SubstitutionCarlos Rubén Chena Báez off · Iván Ramírez on
78'
SubstitutionGastón Giménez off · Pablo Gamarra on

Lineups

Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2 · Cerro Porteno 4-1-4-1

Substitutes · Libertad Asuncion · Coach A. Galeano

  • 31T. Fernández
  • 28M. Fernández
  • 38J. Estigarribia Meza
  • 13J. Bogarín
  • 20H. Fernández
  • 5G. Flores
  • 19I. Franco
  • 32L. Nequecaur
  • 26I. Ramirez
  • 29V. Rojas
  • 21L. Sanabria
  • 24R. Villalba

Substitutes · Cerro Porteno · Coach G. Costas

  • 13G. Benítez
  • 35M. Chaparro
  • 3A. Espinola
  • 18A. Gamarra
  • 40M. Klimowicz
  • 12A. Martínez
  • 33H. Mosquera
  • 16I. Ramírez
  • 7D. Rodríguez
  • 27J. Torres
  • 23G. Velázquez
  • 20E. Almendra

Live stats

Libertad Asuncion left, Cerro Porteno right

Possession 48% 52%
Expected goals (xG) 1.2 1
Shots 14 11
Shots on target 1 2
Corners 5 3
Fouls 11 8
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Offsides 0 1
Saves 1 2

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Libertad Asuncion win · 42.7%
Behind: trailing 0–1
Both teams to scorePick: No · 53.2%
Holding
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Under · 56.5%
Holding: 1 goal so far
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%

How much we know

Libertad Asuncion history54 matches
Cerro Porteno history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 14 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Libertad Asuncion are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,532 against 1,553. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 54 matches for Libertad Asuncion, against 1.28 over 72 for Cerro Porteno.

  • Defences are close

    Libertad Asuncion concede 0.98 a game, Cerro Porteno 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Libertad Asuncion matches, against 33% for Cerro Porteno. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Libertad Asuncion
Cerro Porteno@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.9
ELO
1552.7
54
ELO · Matches
72
1531.9
Current Team ELO
1552.7
1552.7
Current Opponent ELO
1531.9
-20.80
Current ELO Difference
20.80
0.47
Expected score
0.53
54
History Matches
72
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
51.92
Overperformance
52.52
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
72
1.44
PPG
1.60
38.9%
Win rate
44.4%
27.8%
Draw rate
26.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.2%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
35.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
37
1.38
PPG
1.59
38.5%
Win rate
45.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
21.6%
38.5%
Loss rate
32.4%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
26.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
26
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.28
68.5%
Scoring rate
70.8%
42.6%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.30
61.5%
Scoring rate
73.0%
34.6%
BTTS rate
37.8%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.17
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
72
1.24
Goals Mean
1.28
1.30
Goals Std
1.29
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
27.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.2%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
0.92
63.0%
Conceding rate
55.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
0.97
65.4%
Conceding rate
54.1%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.17
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
72
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.05
Conceded Std
1.01
20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.9%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.9%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
72
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.85
Stability score
2.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
72
8
Lead Matches
24
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
13
50.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.02
Rest days
73.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.29
30
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
2.50
PPG
1.00
83.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
6
Current Competition Matches
6
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.40
2.50
Portability PPG Range
1.33
39.78
Portability Score
55.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-20.80
PPG-0.15
GF-0.04
GA0.06
PPG1.50
PPG-0.21
PPG1.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-1.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate26.9%
Trailing Win Rate6.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range1.17
Portability Score-15.64
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO-20.80
Current Opponent ELO20.80
Current ELO Difference-41.59
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Libertad Asuncion

L
Club Sp. San Lorenzo2–1Libertad Asuncion31 Oct · away
Pick: Libertad Asuncion 44% · missed
W
Libertad Asuncion3–1Independiente F.b.c.27 Oct · home
Pick: Libertad Asuncion 55% · hit
L
Sportivo Trinidense1–0Libertad Asuncion18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
D
Cerro Porteno1–1Libertad Asuncion30 Aug · away
Pick: Cerro Porteno 44% · missed
W
Libertad Asuncion1–0Club Sp. San Lorenzo24 Aug · home
Pick: Libertad Asuncion 53% · hit

Cerro Porteno

L
Cerro Porteno0–2Olimpia1 Nov · home
Pick: Olimpia 41% · hit
W
Club Sp. San Lorenzo1–3Cerro Porteno25 Oct · away
Pick: Cerro Porteno 47% · hit
D
Cerro Porteno2–2Sportivo Ameliano18 Oct · home
Pick: Cerro Porteno 47% · missed
L
Cerro Porteno0–22 de Mayo5 Oct · home
Pick: Cerro Porteno 47% · missed
D
Cerro Porteno1–1Libertad Asuncion30 Aug · home
Pick: Cerro Porteno 44% · missed

About this match

Libertad Asuncion and Cerro Porteno meet in Division Profesional - Clausura on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. The match is played at Dr. Nicolás Leoz, Asunción. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC: Libertad Asuncion win 42.7%, draw 26.8%, Cerro Porteno win 30.5%. The pick is Libertad Asuncion win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.