ScoreProb
Division Profesional - Clausura Paraguay Round 18 2026

Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Guarani

Sportivo Ameliano Home · Elo 1,464
LIVE · 85'
0–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
Club Guarani Away · Elo 1,539
Estadio Jose Tomas Silva, Asuncion Referee: Blas Romero Pick published 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Sportivo Ameliano win
Sportivo Ameliano winPick
41.4%
Draw
24.5%
Club Guarani win
34.1%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Yellow cardFabián Franco
15'
21'
SubstitutionVictor·Cespedes off · Diego·Fernandez on
38'
Yellow cardJorge Recalde
45'
SubstitutionJorge Recalde off · Fernando Fernandez on
45'
SubstitutionMaximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells off · Juan Manuel García on
45'
SubstitutionMartín Maldonado off · P. Coronel on
65'
SubstitutionJ. Llano off · L. Martínez on
SubstitutionLuis María Ayala Bentos off · Luis Ortiz on
65'
71'
SubstitutionArmando Méndez off · R. Rodríguez on
SubstitutionFredy Vera off · Carlos Fabricio Favero Villasanti on
74'
SubstitutionValentin Larralde off · Estivel Moreira on
74'
SubstitutionJonathan Daniel Benítez Benítez off · Walter Rodriguez on
83'
Yellow cardLuis Ortiz
84'
SubstitutionR. Torales off · Alcides Ariel Ávalos Samudio on
84'

Lineups

Sportivo Ameliano 4-1-4-1 · Club Guarani 4-4-2

Substitutes · Sportivo Ameliano · Coach Roberto Nanni

  • 31E. Britez
  • 3F. Báez
  • 32G. Camargo
  • 16C. Favero
  • 8E. Moreira
  • 29L. Olmedo
  • 18L. Ortiz
  • 13R. Peralta
  • 15W. Rodríguez
  • 2Luciano Suarez
  • 28Alcides Ariel Ávalos Samudio
  • 1J. Balbuena

Substitutes · Club Guarani · Coach F. Arce

  • 38P. Corone
  • 16Jonatan Marcelo Benítez Otazú
  • 12G. Dionisi
  • 40F. Fernández
  • 26D. Fernández
  • 11J. García
  • 19A. Ibarra
  • 23M. Jacquet
  • 36L. Martínez
  • 37J. Pérez
  • 14R. Rodríguez
  • 18T. Romero

Live stats

Sportivo Ameliano left, Club Guarani right

Possession 47% 53%
Expected goals (xG) 0.77 0.66
Shots 6 11
Shots on target 1 1
Corners 2 4
Fouls 9 6
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Offsides 3 2
Saves 1 2

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Sportivo Ameliano win · 41.4%
Level: 0–0
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 50.8%
Needs both teams to score
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 51.2%
Needs 3 more goals
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Sportivo Ameliano history51 matches
Club Guarani history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 14 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sportivo Ameliano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club Guarani are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,464. On rating alone Club Guarani would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Club Guarani score more

    1.00 goals a game over 51 matches for Sportivo Ameliano, against 1.49 over 67 for Club Guarani.

  • Club Guarani concede fewer

    Sportivo Ameliano concede 1.31 a game, Club Guarani 1.18.

  • Club Guarani games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Sportivo Ameliano matches, against 57% for Club Guarani. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sportivo Ameliano
Club Guarani@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.6
ELO
1538.5
51
ELO · Matches
67
1463.6
Current Team ELO
1538.5
1538.5
Current Opponent ELO
1463.6
-74.91
Current ELO Difference
74.91
0.39
Expected score
0.61
51
History Matches
67
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.92
Overperformance
51.70
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
67
1.08
PPG
1.69
25.5%
Win rate
49.3%
31.4%
Draw rate
20.9%
43.1%
Loss rate
29.9%
60.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.9%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
35
1.22
PPG
1.54
29.6%
Win rate
40.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
34.3%
37.0%
Loss rate
25.7%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
27
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.49
62.7%
Scoring rate
74.6%
49.0%
BTTS rate
50.7%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.43
70.4%
Scoring rate
74.3%
51.9%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
83.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
51
History Matches
67
1.00
Goals Mean
1.49
1.01
Goals Std
1.18
62.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
25.5%
Scored 2+ rate
49.3%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.18
76.5%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.11
74.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
51
History Matches
67
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.13
Conceded Std
1.20
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.78
2.17
Stability score
5.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
67
9
Lead Matches
23
44.4%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.86
16
Trailing Matches
17
37.5%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.13
Rest days
71.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
24
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.50
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.66
Portability PPG Range
1.01
64.89
Portability Score
55.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-74.91
PPG-0.61
GF-0.49
GA0.13
PPG0.17
PPG-0.32
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-3.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score9.41
Rest days3.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-74.91
Current Opponent ELO74.91
Current ELO Difference-149.8
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sportivo Ameliano

L
Deportivo Recoleta3–0Sportivo Ameliano31 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Recoleta 39% · hit
L
Sportivo Ameliano2–3Olimpia25 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia 40% · hit
D
Cerro Porteno2–2Sportivo Ameliano18 Oct · away
Pick: Cerro Porteno 47% · missed
L
2 de Mayo1–0Sportivo Ameliano12 Oct · away
Pick: 2 de Mayo 53% · hit
D
Club Guarani1–1Sportivo Ameliano30 Aug · away
Pick: Club Guarani 47% · missed

Club Guarani

W
Club Guarani1–02 de Mayo30 Oct · home
Pick: Club Guarani 42% · hit
L
Club Guarani0–2Nacional Asuncion17 Oct · home
Pick: Club Guarani 37% · missed
D
Club Guarani1–1Sportivo Ameliano30 Aug · home
Pick: Club Guarani 47% · missed
D
2 de Mayo0–0Club Guarani25 Aug · away
Pick: 2 de Mayo 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sportivo Ameliano and Club Guarani meet in Division Profesional - Clausura on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Jose Tomas Silva, Asuncion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC: Sportivo Ameliano win 41.4%, draw 24.5%, Club Guarani win 34.1%. The pick is Sportivo Ameliano win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.