ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Lillestrom vs Aalesund

Lillestrom Home · Elo 1,618
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aalesund Away · Elo 1,563
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lillestrom win
Lillestrom winPick
54.7%
Draw
20.0%
Aalesund win
25.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.5%
No36.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Lillestrom history75 matches
Aalesund history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Lillestrom are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lillestrom are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,563. On rating alone Lillestrom would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.25 goals a game over 75 matches for Lillestrom, against 2.06 over 77 for Aalesund.

  • Lillestrom concede fewer

    Lillestrom concede 1.07 a game, Aalesund 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Lillestrom matches, against 64% for Aalesund. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lillestrom
Aalesund
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.9
ELO
1563.1
75
ELO · Matches
77
1617.9
Current Team ELO
1563.1
1563.1
Current Opponent ELO
1617.9
54.77
Current ELO Difference
-54.77
0.58
Expected score
0.42
75
History Matches
77
0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
56.57
Overperformance
53.32
-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
4.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
3.10
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.51
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.24
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
77
2.05
PPG
1.55
62.7%
Win rate
41.6%
17.3%
Draw rate
29.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
38
2.07
PPG
1.53
64.3%
Win rate
42.1%
14.3%
Draw rate
26.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
31.6%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.1%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.93
42
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.25
Goals for per game
2.06
82.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
49.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.40
Goals for per game
2.18
88.1%
Scoring rate
84.2%
59.5%
BTTS rate
65.8%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.59
64.7%
Scoring rate
88.2%
41.2%
BTTS rate
88.2%
75
History Matches
77
2.25
Goals Mean
2.06
1.77
Goals Std
1.96
82.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
65.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
34.7%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
2.40
Venue Goals Mean
2.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.56
62.7%
Conceding rate
74.0%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.76
69.0%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.24
Goals against per game
2.41
70.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
77
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.16
Conceded Std
1.45
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.1%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
17.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
17.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
77
0.84
Result entropy
0.99
2.30
Goal Difference Std
2.48
16.39
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
73
33
Lead Matches
23
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
21
29.4%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.28
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.08
Rest days
78.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
42
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.53
PPG
0.88
47.1%
Win rate
11.8%
11.8%
Draw rate
52.9%
41.2%
Loss rate
35.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.53
Current Competition PPG
0.88
0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.82
6
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.58
Portability PPG Range
1.37
48.69
Portability Score
53.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO54.77
PPG0.51
GF0.19
GA-0.49
PPG0.65
PPG0.55
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.68
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.17
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score15.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-3.05
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate17.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.94
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-5.23
Rest days6.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.79
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO54.77
Current Opponent ELO-54.77
Current ELO Difference109.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lillestrom

W
Start0–1Lillestrom1 Nov · away
Pick: Lillestrom 50% · hit
W
Lillestrom2–1Sogndal28 Oct · home
Pick: Lillestrom 58% · hit
W
Lillestrom3–2Brann25 Oct · home
Pick: Brann 47% · missed
L
Lillestrom0–6Real Sociedad22 Oct · home
Pick: Lillestrom 40% · missed
W
Sandefjord0–2Lillestrom18 Oct · away
Pick: Lillestrom 44% · hit

Aalesund

L
Aalesund3–4Sandefjord31 Oct · home
Pick: Aalesund 43% · missed
W
Kristiansund BK0–2Aalesund28 Oct · away
Pick: Aalesund 54% · hit
L
Sarpsborg 08 FF2–1Aalesund25 Oct · away
Pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% · hit
W
Kristiansund BK1–4Aalesund17 Oct · away
Pick: Kristiansund BK 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lillestrom and Aalesund meet in Eliteserien on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lillestrom win 54.7%, draw 20.0%, Aalesund win 25.3%. The pick is Lillestrom win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 63.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.