ScoreProb
Premier Division Gibraltar Round 10 2026

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs College 1975

Lincoln Red Imps FC Home · Elo 1,670
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
College 1975 Away · Elo 1,391
Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC win
Lincoln Red Imps FC winPick
65.2%
Draw
17.3%
College 1975 win
17.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.5%
Under 2.533.5%

How much we know

Lincoln Red Imps FC history62 matches
College 1975 history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Lincoln Red Imps FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lincoln Red Imps FC are rated 279 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,670 against 1,391. On rating alone Lincoln Red Imps FC would be expected to take 83% of the points on offer.

  • Lincoln Red Imps FC score far more

    2.26 goals a game over 62 matches for Lincoln Red Imps FC, against 0.72 over 29 for College 1975.

  • Lincoln Red Imps FC concede fewer

    Lincoln Red Imps FC concede 1.05 a game, College 1975 2.10.

  • Lincoln Red Imps FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Lincoln Red Imps FC matches, against 38% for College 1975. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
College 1975@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1670.4
ELO
1391.3
62
ELO · Matches
29
1670.4
Current Team ELO
1391.3
1391.3
Current Opponent ELO
1670.4
279.1
Current ELO Difference
-279.1
0.83
Expected score
0.17
62
History Matches
29
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.19
60.69
Overperformance
38.85
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.70
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
29
2.05
PPG
0.62
62.9%
Win rate
13.8%
16.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
21.0%
Loss rate
65.5%
82.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
40.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
15
2.39
PPG
1.00
75.8%
Win rate
26.7%
12.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
12.1%
Loss rate
53.3%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
33
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
0.72
85.5%
Scoring rate
44.8%
45.2%
BTTS rate
34.5%
2.58
Goals for per game
1.00
90.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
48.5%
BTTS rate
40.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
29
2.26
Goals Mean
0.72
1.95
Goals Std
1.01
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
44.8%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
17.2%
40.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.9%
2.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
2.10
53.2%
Conceding rate
82.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
2.00
54.5%
Conceding rate
73.3%
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
29
1.05
Conceded Mean
2.10
1.40
Conceded Std
1.60
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.2%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.9%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
29
0.83
Result entropy
0.80
2.76
Goal Difference Std
1.86
16.86
Stability score
20.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
25
29
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
14
21.4%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.16
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.28
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
78.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.58
22
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
100.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
1.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
12
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.03
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.07
37.13
Portability Score
93.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO279.1
PPG1.43
GF1.53
GA-1.06
PPG1.39
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches33
Goals Mean1.53
Goals Std0.94
Scored 1+ rate40.7%
Scored 2+ rate37.6%
Scored 3+ rate33.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches33
Conceded Mean-1.06
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches33
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.90
Stability score-3.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches28
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate14.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.89
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count7
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.81
Portability PPG Range2.43
Portability Score-56.62
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.31
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.59
Current Team ELO279.1
Current Opponent ELO-279.1
Current ELO Difference558.2
Expected score0.67
History Matches33
Residual Mean0.33
Overperformance21.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lincoln Red Imps FC

W
Hound Dogs0–5Lincoln Red Imps FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 76% · hit
W
Lincoln Red Imps FC3–0Lions Gibraltar25 Oct · home
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 74% · hit
L
Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4Twente22 Oct · home
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 46% · missed
W
Lynx1–2Lincoln Red Imps FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 55% · hit
L
Brann2–1Lincoln Red Imps FC15 Oct · away
Pick: Brann 43% · hit

College 1975

L
College 19752–4Glacis United28 Oct · home
Pick: College 1975 49% · missed
L
St Joseph S Fc5–0College 197525 Oct · away
Pick: St Joseph S Fc 73% · hit
L
College 19751–2Lions Gibraltar29 Aug · home
Pick: College 1975 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lincoln Red Imps FC and College 1975 meet in Premier Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lincoln Red Imps FC win 65.2%, draw 17.3%, College 1975 win 17.5%. The pick is Lincoln Red Imps FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.5%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.