ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka

Mjallby AIF Home · Elo 1,618
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Borac Banja Luka Away · Elo 1,697
Olympia, Helsingborg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borac Banja Luka win
Mjallby AIF win
32.7%
Draw
29.1%
Borac Banja Luka winPick
38.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Mjallby AIF history74 matches
Borac Banja Luka history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Borac Banja Luka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borac Banja Luka are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,697 against 1,618. On rating alone Borac Banja Luka would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.88 goals a game over 74 matches for Mjallby AIF, against 1.74 over 80 for Borac Banja Luka.

  • Borac Banja Luka concede fewer

    Mjallby AIF concede 0.96 a game, Borac Banja Luka 0.69.

  • Mjallby AIF games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Mjallby AIF matches, against 39% for Borac Banja Luka. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mjallby AIF
Borac Banja Luka
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.0
ELO
1696.6
74
ELO · Matches
80
1618.0
Current Team ELO
1696.6
1696.6
Current Opponent ELO
1618.0
-78.58
Current ELO Difference
78.58
0.39
Expected score
0.61
74
History Matches
80
0.08
Residual Mean
0.13
56.34
Overperformance
60.21
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
80
1.96
PPG
2.18
58.1%
Win rate
66.3%
21.6%
Draw rate
18.8%
20.3%
Loss rate
15.0%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
2.15
PPG
1.83
66.7%
Win rate
52.8%
15.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
22.2%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
30.6%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.74
83.8%
Scoring rate
87.5%
47.3%
BTTS rate
36.3%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.28
87.2%
Scoring rate
80.6%
43.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
—
Goals for per game
1.75
—
Scoring rate
75.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
74
History Matches
80
1.88
Goals Mean
1.74
1.34
Goals Std
1.30
83.8%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
55.4%
Scored 2+ rate
47.5%
32.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.8%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
0.69
58.1%
Conceding rate
43.8%
0.77
Goals against per game
0.78
53.8%
Conceding rate
44.4%
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
80
0.96
Conceded Mean
0.69
1.08
Conceded Std
0.98
24.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.0%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
80
0.88
Result entropy
0.79
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.65
11.70
Stability score
20.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
80
30
Lead Matches
37
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
9
58.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.20
Rest days
74.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
46
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.29
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
1.75
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
25.0%
—
Loss rate
25.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
1.75
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
8
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.71
Portability PPG Range
1.25
43.47
Portability Score
52.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-78.58
PPG-0.22
GF0.14
GA0.27
PPG0.32
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate7.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-9.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate13.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-8.72
Rest days8.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-78.58
Current Opponent ELO78.58
Current ELO Difference-157.2
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mjallby AIF

D
Mjallby AIF0–0Kalmar FF2 Nov · home
Pick: Mjallby AIF 58% · missed
W
Orgryte IS1–2Mjallby AIF29 Oct · away
Pick: Mjallby AIF 45% · hit
L
Mjallby AIF0–2Hammarby FF25 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby FF 45% · hit
D
Saburtalo1–1Mjallby AIF22 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 47% · missed
L
Vasteras SK FK1–0Mjallby AIF18 Oct · away
Pick: Mjallby AIF 42% · missed

Borac Banja Luka

W
Cazin0–2Borac Banja Luka28 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Banja Luka 37% · hit
W
Borac Banja Luka2–0Sloga Doboj25 Oct · home
Pick: Borac Banja Luka 77% · hit
W
Borac Banja Luka2–0KuPS22 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 39% · missed
L
Panathinaikos2–1Borac Banja Luka15 Oct · away
Pick: Panathinaikos 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mjallby AIF and Borac Banja Luka meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Olympia, Helsingborg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Mjallby AIF win 32.7%, draw 29.1%, Borac Banja Luka win 38.2%. The pick is Borac Banja Luka win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.