ScoreProb
3. SNL - West Slovenia West - 13 2026

Litija vs Žiri

Litija Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Žiri Away · Elo 1,438
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Žiri win
Litija win
23.9%
Draw
19.9%
Žiri winPick
56.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.0%
Under 2.531.0%

How much we know

Litija history2 matches
Žiri history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Žiri are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Litija are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,482 against 1,438. On rating alone Litija would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Žiri score far more

    0.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Litija, against 1.05 over 21 for Žiri.

  • Žiri concede fewer

    Litija concede 3.00 a game, Žiri 2.48.

  • Litija games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Litija matches, against 76% for Žiri. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Litija
Žiri
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.9
ELO
1438.1
2
ELO · Matches
21
1481.9
Current Team ELO
1438.1
1438.1
Current Opponent ELO
1481.9
43.79
Current ELO Difference
-43.79
0.56
Expected score
0.44
2
History Matches
21
-0.45
Residual Mean
-0.15
45.90
Overperformance
42.27
-0.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.50
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.50
Goals for per game
0.60
3.00
Goals against per game
3.20
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
21
0.00
PPG
0.86
0.0%
Win rate
23.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
61.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
11
0.00
PPG
0.91
0.0%
Win rate
27.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
9.1%
100.0%
Loss rate
63.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.86
1
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.50
Goals for per game
1.05
50.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.27
100.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
100.0%
BTTS rate
45.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
21
0.50
Goals Mean
1.05
0.50
Goals Std
1.13
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
61.9%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
23.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
2.48
100.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.27
100.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
21
3.00
Conceded Mean
2.48
1.00
Conceded Std
1.97
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.9%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
47.6%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
21
0.00
Result entropy
0.83
1.50
Goal Difference Std
2.72
100.0
Stability score
16.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
20
0
Lead Matches
4
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
9
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.33
0
Long Rest History Matches
10
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.79
PPG-0.86
GF-0.55
GA0.52
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.91
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.63
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std-0.97
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate38.1%
Conceded 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.83
Goal Difference Std-1.22
Stability score83.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-4
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches-10
Current Team ELO43.79
Current Opponent ELO-43.79
Current ELO Difference87.57
Expected score0.13
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.30
Overperformance3.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Litija

W
Škofja Loka1–3Litija31 Oct · away
Pick: Škofja Loka 67% · missed
L
Litija0–1Svoboda24 Oct · home
Pick: Svoboda 52% · hit
W
Litija7–0Šencur17 Oct · home
Pick: Šencur 73% · missed
W
Vipava0–4Litija4 Oct · away
Pick: Vipava 52% · missed
W
Svoboda0–3Litija30 Aug · away
Pick: Svoboda 68% · missed

Žiri

W
Žiri2–0Šobec Lesce31 Oct · home
Pick: Žiri 44% · hit
L
Zidgrad Idrija1–0Žiri24 Oct · away
Pick: Zidgrad Idrija 51% · hit
W
Žiri3–0Svoboda17 Oct · home
Pick: Žiri 47% · hit
L
Žiri0–3Dob29 Aug · home
Pick: Dob 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Litija and Žiri meet in 3. SNL - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Litija win 23.9%, draw 19.9%, Žiri win 56.1%. The pick is Žiri win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.0%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.