ScoreProb
3. SNL - West Slovenia West - 13 2026

Šobec Lesce vs Izola

Šobec Lesce Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Izola Away · Elo 1,559
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Izola win
Šobec Lesce win
19.6%
Draw
23.4%
Izola winPick
57.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%

How much we know

Šobec Lesce history20 matches
Izola history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Izola are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Izola are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,559 against 1,471. On rating alone Izola would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Izola score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 20 matches for Šobec Lesce, against 2.65 over 20 for Izola.

  • Izola concede fewer

    Šobec Lesce concede 1.45 a game, Izola 1.30.

  • Izola games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Šobec Lesce matches, against 80% for Izola. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Šobec Lesce
Izola
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.0
ELO
1559.3
20
ELO · Matches
20
1471.0
Current Team ELO
1559.3
1559.3
Current Opponent ELO
1471.0
-88.30
Current ELO Difference
88.30
0.38
Expected score
0.62
20
History Matches
20
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.17
46.02
Overperformance
58.27
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
3.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.50
1.10
Goals for per game
3.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
20
Matches
20
1.00
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
60.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
8
1.22
PPG
2.50
33.3%
Win rate
75.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
0.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
9
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
2.65
55.0%
Scoring rate
95.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
3.00
55.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
75.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
4.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
20
History Matches
20
1.00
Goals Mean
2.65
1.22
Goals Std
1.35
55.0%
Scored 1+ rate
95.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
80.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.00
77.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
20
History Matches
20
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.24
Conceded Std
1.05
35.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.0%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
20
History Matches
20
0.95
Result entropy
0.86
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.90
5.36
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
18
3
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.88
5
Trailing Matches
1
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
1.39
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.90
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
14
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
8
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
20
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-88.30
PPG-1.00
GF-1.65
GA0.15
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.28
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate40.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate44.4%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-1.65
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.40
Scored 2+ rate-0.55
Scored 3+ rate-0.40
Venue Goals Mean-1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches0
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-8.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-1.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.35
Current Team ELO-88.30
Current Opponent ELO88.30
Current ELO Difference-176.6
Expected score-0.25
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.25
Overperformance-12.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Šobec Lesce

L
Žiri2–0Šobec Lesce31 Oct · away
Pick: Žiri 44% · hit
L
Šobec Lesce0–1Škofja Loka28 Oct · home
Pick: Škofja Loka 42% · hit
W
Tolmin0–1Šobec Lesce17 Oct · away
Pick: Tolmin 51% · missed
L
Šobec Lesce1–2Zidgrad Idrija29 Aug · home
Pick: Zidgrad Idrija 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Izola

W
Izola2–1Zidgrad Idrija31 Oct · home
Pick: Izola 63% · hit
D
Svoboda1–1Izola28 Oct · away
Pick: Izola 68% · missed
W
Izola11–1Rudar Trbovlje17 Oct · home
Pick: Izola 57% · hit
W
Izola11–0Vipava29 Aug · home
Pick: Izola 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Šobec Lesce and Izola meet in 3. SNL - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Šobec Lesce win 19.6%, draw 23.4%, Izola win 57.0%. The pick is Izola win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.