ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 14 2026

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua

Lobos Upnfm Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CD Motagua Away · Elo 1,568
Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CD Motagua win
Lobos Upnfm win
23.2%
Draw
19.2%
CD Motagua winPick
57.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Lobos Upnfm history42 matches
CD Motagua history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why CD Motagua are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CD Motagua are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,453. On rating alone CD Motagua would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • CD Motagua score more

    1.17 goals a game over 42 matches for Lobos Upnfm, against 1.61 over 71 for CD Motagua.

  • CD Motagua concede fewer

    Lobos Upnfm concede 1.81 a game, CD Motagua 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Lobos Upnfm matches, against 52% for CD Motagua. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lobos Upnfm
CD Motagua
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.8
ELO
1568.0
42
ELO · Matches
71
1452.8
Current Team ELO
1568.0
1568.0
Current Opponent ELO
1452.8
-115.2
Current ELO Difference
115.2
0.34
Expected score
0.66
42
History Matches
71
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
45.12
Overperformance
53.60
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
71
0.95
PPG
1.54
19.0%
Win rate
40.8%
38.1%
Draw rate
31.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
28.2%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
36
1.53
PPG
1.47
29.4%
Win rate
38.9%
64.7%
Draw rate
30.6%
5.9%
Loss rate
30.6%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
17
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.61
71.4%
Scoring rate
77.5%
64.3%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.53
82.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
82.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
42
History Matches
71
1.17
Goals Mean
1.61
0.95
Goals Std
1.53
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.6%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.9%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
1.21
85.7%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
0.97
82.4%
Conceding rate
63.9%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
42
History Matches
71
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.33
Conceded Std
1.06
52.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
71
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.92
4.73
Stability score
1.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
71
10
Lead Matches
23
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.77
16
Trailing Matches
12
18.8%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.93
Rest days
77.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
45
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
19
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.54
Portability PPG Range
0.96
68.58
Portability Score
59.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-115.2
PPG-0.58
GF-0.44
GA0.60
PPG-1.00
PPG0.06
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-29
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.58
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.85
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches-29
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score3.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score8.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Current Team ELO-115.2
Current Opponent ELO115.2
Current ELO Difference-230.3
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-29
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lobos Upnfm

W
Lobos Upnfm4–3Génesis31 Oct · home
Pick: Génesis 47% · missed
L
Lobos Upnfm0–1CD Olimpia25 Oct · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 67% · hit
W
Atletico Independiente0–4Lobos Upnfm18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Independiente 51% · missed
L
Juticalpa1–0Lobos Upnfm29 Aug · away
Pick: Lobos Upnfm 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CD Motagua

W
CD Motagua2–0CD Marathon1 Nov · home
Pick: CD Motagua 38% · hit
L
LD Alajuelense2–1CD Motagua30 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 39% · hit
W
CD Motagua2–0Juticalpa25 Oct · home
Pick: CD Motagua 76% · hit
D
CD Motagua0–0LD Alajuelense23 Oct · home
Pick: CD Motagua 44% · missed
W
Platense FC0–2CD Motagua17 Oct · away
Pick: CD Motagua 63% · hit

About this match

Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua meet in Liga Nacional on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lobos Upnfm win 23.2%, draw 19.2%, CD Motagua win 57.5%. The pick is CD Motagua win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.