ScoreProb
Premier League Russia Round 14 2026

Lokomotiv vs Rubin

Lokomotiv Home · Elo 1,576
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rubin Away · Elo 1,558
RZD Arena, Moscow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lokomotiv win
Lokomotiv winPick
49.8%
Draw
29.8%
Rubin win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Lokomotiv history80 matches
Rubin history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lokomotiv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,576 against 1,558. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lokomotiv score more

    1.71 goals a game over 80 matches for Lokomotiv, against 1.20 over 71 for Rubin.

  • Defences are close

    Lokomotiv concede 1.18 a game, Rubin 1.14.

  • Lokomotiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Lokomotiv matches, against 39% for Rubin. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lokomotiv
Rubin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.1
ELO
1558.2
80
ELO · Matches
71
1576.1
Current Team ELO
1558.2
1558.2
Current Opponent ELO
1576.1
17.86
Current ELO Difference
-17.86
0.53
Expected score
0.47
80
History Matches
71
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
54.36
Overperformance
52.84
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
71
1.71
PPG
1.51
46.3%
Win rate
40.8%
32.5%
Draw rate
28.2%
21.3%
Loss rate
31.0%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
37
1.95
PPG
1.08
52.3%
Win rate
27.0%
38.6%
Draw rate
27.0%
9.1%
Loss rate
45.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
44
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.20
86.3%
Scoring rate
70.4%
61.3%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.00
86.4%
Scoring rate
59.5%
47.7%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
71
1.71
Goals Mean
1.20
1.25
Goals Std
1.06
86.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.4%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.6%
22.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.14
70.0%
Conceding rate
60.6%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.43
52.3%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
71
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.06
Conceded Std
1.24
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
71
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.62
4.33
Stability score
1.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
69
31
Lead Matches
22
77.4%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
16
45.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.97
Rest days
73.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
47
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
8
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.69
1.60
Portability PPG Range
2.14
50.50
Portability Score
41.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO17.86
PPG0.21
GF0.52
GA0.03
PPG-0.60
PPG0.87
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate15.8%
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score3.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate7.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score8.61
Rest days2.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO17.86
Current Opponent ELO-17.86
Current ELO Difference35.73
Expected score0.05
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lokomotiv

L
Lokomotiv0–4Spartak Moscow1 Nov · home
Pick: Spartak Moscow 55% · hit
L
CSKA Moscow3–1Lokomotiv29 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moscow 40% · hit
L
FC Rostov2–0Lokomotiv25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Rostov 38% · hit
D
Lokomotiv3–3FC Krasnodar17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Krasnodar 50% · missed
L
Lokomotiv0–1Dynamo29 Aug · home
Pick: Lokomotiv 44% · missed

Rubin

W
Rubin1–0Fakel31 Oct · home
Pick: Rubin 48% · hit
L
Spartak Moscow1–0Rubin28 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moscow 66% · hit
L
Rubin0–2Krylia Sovetov24 Oct · home
Pick: Rubin 55% · missed
L
Rubin1–4FC Orenburg15 Oct · home
Pick: Rubin 40% · missed
W
Rubin3–1Dinamo Makhachkala30 Aug · home
Pick: Rubin 39% · hit

About this match

Lokomotiv and Rubin meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at RZD Arena, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Lokomotiv win 49.8%, draw 29.8%, Rubin win 20.5%. The pick is Lokomotiv win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.