ScoreProb
Premier League Russia Round 14 2026

FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow

FC Krasnodar Home · Elo 1,701
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSKA Moscow Away · Elo 1,570
Ozon Arena, Krasnodar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Krasnodar win
FC Krasnodar winPick
44.7%
Draw
28.2%
CSKA Moscow win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

FC Krasnodar history77 matches
CSKA Moscow history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Krasnodar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Krasnodar are rated 131 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,701 against 1,570. On rating alone FC Krasnodar would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • FC Krasnodar score more

    1.99 goals a game over 77 matches for FC Krasnodar, against 1.50 over 84 for CSKA Moscow.

  • FC Krasnodar concede fewer

    FC Krasnodar concede 0.87 a game, CSKA Moscow 1.11.

  • FC Krasnodar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of FC Krasnodar matches, against 44% for CSKA Moscow. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1700.6
ELO
1569.7
77
ELO · Matches
84
1700.6
Current Team ELO
1569.7
1569.7
Current Opponent ELO
1700.6
131.0
Current ELO Difference
-131.0
0.68
Expected score
0.32
77
History Matches
84
0.13
Residual Mean
0.04
60.51
Overperformance
53.45
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
84
2.10
PPG
1.76
63.6%
Win rate
48.8%
19.5%
Draw rate
29.8%
16.9%
Loss rate
21.4%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
29.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
40
2.22
PPG
1.33
68.3%
Win rate
32.5%
17.1%
Draw rate
35.0%
14.6%
Loss rate
32.5%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
63.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
41
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.99
Goals for per game
1.50
88.3%
Scoring rate
76.2%
53.2%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.22
Goals for per game
1.18
87.8%
Scoring rate
57.5%
48.8%
BTTS rate
47.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
77
History Matches
84
1.99
Goals Mean
1.50
1.48
Goals Std
1.19
88.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
31.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.2%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.11
59.7%
Conceding rate
73.8%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.20
56.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
77
History Matches
84
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.90
Conceded Std
1.02
20.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.5%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
84
0.83
Result entropy
0.95
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.41
17.48
Stability score
5.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
83
32
Lead Matches
28
90.6%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.86
10
Trailing Matches
18
60.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
76.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
52
Normal Rest History Matches
57
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.20
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.20
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
9
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.17
52.17
Portability Score
56.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO131.0
PPG0.34
GF0.49
GA-0.24
PPG0.80
PPG0.89
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score12.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate12.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate26.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-4.29
Rest days-0.89
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.14
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO131.0
Current Opponent ELO-131.0
Current ELO Difference261.9
Expected score0.36
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Krasnodar

L
Rodina Moskva2–1FC Krasnodar31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Krasnodar 55% · missed
W
FC Krasnodar2–1Dynamo27 Oct · home
Pick: FC Krasnodar 56% · hit
D
FC Krasnodar1–1Baltika24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Krasnodar 57% · missed
D
Lokomotiv3–3FC Krasnodar17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Krasnodar 50% · missed
L
FC Krasnodar0–2Fakel13 Oct · home
Pick: FC Krasnodar 62% · missed

CSKA Moscow

D
FC Orenburg0–0CSKA Moscow1 Nov · away
Pick: CSKA Moscow 46% · missed
W
CSKA Moscow3–1Lokomotiv29 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moscow 40% · hit
W
CSKA Moscow2–0Spartak Moscow25 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moscow 38% · missed
L
Dynamo3–1CSKA Moscow18 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moscow 44% · missed
W
CSKA Moscow4–0FC Rostov14 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Moscow 44% · hit

About this match

FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Ozon Arena, Krasnodar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Krasnodar win 44.7%, draw 28.2%, CSKA Moscow win 27.1%. The pick is FC Krasnodar win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.