Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle
Lucchese
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Donato Tavarnelle
Match result probability Model pick: San Donato Tavarnelle win
Lucchese win
24.9%
Draw
25.1%
San Donato Tavarnelle winPick
50.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.2%
No48.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%
How much we know
Lucchese history16 matches
San Donato Tavarnelle history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours San Donato Tavarnelle
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why San Donato Tavarnelle are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,517 against 1,494. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Lucchese score far more
1.56 goals a game over 16 matches for Lucchese, against 0.92 over 52 for San Donato Tavarnelle.
-
San Donato Tavarnelle concede fewer
Lucchese concede 1.63 a game, San Donato Tavarnelle 0.96.
-
Lucchese games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Lucchese matches, against 25% for San Donato Tavarnelle. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lucchese
San Donato Tavarnelle
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.9
ELO
1494.0
16
ELO · Matches
52
1516.9
Current Team ELO
1494.0
1494.0
Current Opponent ELO
1516.9
22.91
Current ELO Difference
-22.91
0.53
Expected score
0.47
16
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.32
Overperformance
49.35
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
52
1.56
PPG
1.27
43.8%
Win rate
30.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
34.6%
31.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
27
2.50
PPG
1.15
75.0%
Win rate
25.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
37.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
37.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
51.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
0.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
8
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
0.92
93.8%
Scoring rate
57.7%
68.8%
BTTS rate
40.4%
2.13
Goals for per game
0.81
100.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
62.5%
BTTS rate
37.0%
16
History Matches
52
1.56
Goals Mean
0.92
0.93
Goals Std
1.00
93.8%
Scored 1+ rate
57.7%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
0.96
75.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.96
62.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
16
History Matches
52
1.63
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.36
Conceded Std
0.85
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.2%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.19
2.45
Stability score
0.14
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
52
4
Lead Matches
12
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.89
4
Trailing Matches
12
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
539.8
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
6
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.51
—
Portability PPG Range
1.16
—
Portability Score
49.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO22.91
PPG0.29
GF0.64
GA0.66
PPG1.35
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-36
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches-36
Goals Mean0.64
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate36.1%
Scored 2+ rate18.8%
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-36
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.56
History Matches-36
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.63
Stability score2.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.86
Eligible Matches-36
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-36
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days462.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-29
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO22.91
Current Opponent ELO-22.91
Current ELO Difference45.81
Expected score0.07
History Matches-36
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance2.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lucchese
L
Terranuova Traiana3–2Lucchese1 Nov · away
Pick: Terranuova Traiana 60% · hit D
Lucchese1–1Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano25 Oct · home
Pick: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 44% · missed L
Sasso Marconi Zola2–0Lucchese18 Oct · away
Pick: Sasso Marconi Zola 44% · hit W
Grassina3–6Lucchese4 Oct · away
Pick: Lucchese 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
San Donato Tavarnelle
W
San Donato Tavarnelle1–0Montevarchi Calcio1 Nov · home
Pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 43% · hit L
Scandicci2–1San Donato Tavarnelle25 Oct · away
Pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 40% · missed W
San Donato Tavarnelle1–0Tau Altopascio18 Oct · home
Pick: Tau Altopascio 36% · missed D
San Donato Tavarnelle1–1Mezzolara4 Oct · home
Pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 66% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Lucchese and San Donato Tavarnelle meet in Serie D - Girone E on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Porta Elisa, Lucca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lucchese win 24.9%, draw 25.1%, San Donato Tavarnelle win 50.1%. The pick is San Donato Tavarnelle win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.