ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone E Italy Group E - 11 2026

Seravezza vs Prato

Seravezza Home · Elo 1,573
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Prato Away · Elo 1,569
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Seravezza win
Seravezza winPick
39.3%
Draw
34.6%
Prato win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.9%
Under 2.556.1%

How much we know

Seravezza history52 matches
Prato history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Seravezza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,573 against 1,569. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 52 matches for Seravezza, against 1.29 over 51 for Prato.

  • Seravezza concede fewer

    Seravezza concede 0.83 a game, Prato 1.02.

  • Prato games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Seravezza matches, against 45% for Prato. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Seravezza
Prato
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1572.7
ELO
1568.8
52
ELO · Matches
51
1572.7
Current Team ELO
1568.8
1568.8
Current Opponent ELO
1572.7
3.87
Current ELO Difference
-3.87
0.51
Expected score
0.49
52
History Matches
51
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.63
Overperformance
55.21
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
51
1.77
PPG
1.69
48.1%
Win rate
51.0%
32.7%
Draw rate
15.7%
19.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
32.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.1%
13.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
24
2.16
PPG
1.54
64.0%
Win rate
45.8%
24.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
12.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.31
Goals for per game
1.29
80.8%
Scoring rate
72.5%
48.1%
BTTS rate
39.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.29
84.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
44.0%
BTTS rate
29.2%
52
History Matches
51
1.31
Goals Mean
1.29
0.89
Goals Std
1.03
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
5.8%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
1.02
55.8%
Conceding rate
56.9%
0.76
Goals against per game
0.88
44.0%
Conceding rate
45.8%
52
History Matches
51
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.02
0.98
Conceded Std
1.11
17.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.2%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.2%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
51
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.26
Goal Difference Std
1.65
5.82
Stability score
8.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
51
20
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
9
Trailing Matches
12
44.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.88
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
12
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.53
94.55
Portability Score
65.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO3.87
PPG0.08
GF0.01
GA-0.19
PPG0.62
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate8.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-3.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate27.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score29.00
Rest days-89.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO3.87
Current Opponent ELO-3.87
Current ELO Difference7.74
Expected score0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Seravezza

L
Ternana3–0Seravezza1 Nov · away
Pick: Ternana 49% · hit
D
Seravezza1–1Gavorrano25 Oct · home
Pick: Seravezza 49% · missed
D
Rondinella0–0Seravezza18 Oct · away
Pick: Seravezza 37% · missed
L
Robur Siena2–1Seravezza4 Oct · away
Pick: Seravezza 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Prato

W
Prato4–0Mezzolara1 Nov · home
Pick: Prato 68% · hit
L
Prato1–2Ternana28 Oct · home
Pick: Ternana 42% · hit
D
Prato1–1Flaminia25 Oct · home
Pick: Prato 42% · missed
D
Gavorrano1–1Prato18 Oct · away
Pick: Prato 39% · missed
W
Terranuova Traiana0–3Prato7 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · missed

About this match

Seravezza and Prato meet in Serie D - Girone E on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Seravezza win 39.3%, draw 34.6%, Prato win 26.1%. The pick is Seravezza win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.9%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.