ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Luton vs Forest Green

Luton Home · Elo 1,619
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Forest Green Away · Elo 1,580
Kenilworth Road, Luton Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Luton win
Luton winPick
41.7%
Draw
26.6%
Forest Green win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Luton history84 matches
Forest Green history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Luton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Luton are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,580. On rating alone Luton would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 84 matches for Luton, against 1.67 over 86 for Forest Green.

  • Defences are close

    Luton concede 1.20 a game, Forest Green 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Luton matches, against 57% for Forest Green. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luton
Forest Green
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.6
ELO
1580.2
84
ELO · Matches
86
1618.6
Current Team ELO
1580.2
1580.2
Current Opponent ELO
1618.6
38.34
Current ELO Difference
-38.34
0.55
Expected score
0.45
84
History Matches
86
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
55.78
Overperformance
54.20
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.70
2.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
86
1.67
PPG
1.65
47.6%
Win rate
46.5%
23.8%
Draw rate
25.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
27.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.0%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
40
1.93
PPG
1.35
55.8%
Win rate
35.0%
25.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
18.6%
Loss rate
35.0%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
43
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
1.67
78.6%
Scoring rate
82.6%
52.4%
BTTS rate
62.8%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.40
81.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
58.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
84
History Matches
86
1.57
Goals Mean
1.67
1.20
Goals Std
1.21
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.3%
20.2%
Scored 3+ rate
22.1%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
70.2%
Conceding rate
75.6%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.28
69.8%
Conceding rate
77.5%
84
History Matches
86
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.14
Conceded Std
1.11
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.9%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
86
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.16
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
86
30
Lead Matches
30
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.91
19
Trailing Matches
32
31.6%
Non-loss rate
40.6%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
62
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
15
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.53
57.05
Portability Score
73.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO38.34
PPG0.02
GF-0.10
GA-0.10
PPG0.58
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.45
Portability Score-15.95
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO38.34
Current Opponent ELO-38.34
Current ELO Difference76.69
Expected score0.11
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luton

D
Huddersfield1–1Luton3 Nov · away
Pick: Huddersfield 53% · missed
W
Peterborough0–2Luton31 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 37% · hit
W
Luton3–1Doncaster27 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 46% · hit
W
Luton2–1Leicester24 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 60% · hit
W
Luton2–1Barnsley20 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 53% · hit

Forest Green

D
Forest Green2–2Harrogate Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Forest Green 41% · missed
W
Forest Green2–0Eastleigh28 Oct · home
Pick: Forest Green 45% · hit
D
Chesham United0–0Forest Green17 Oct · away
Pick: Forest Green 47% · missed
L
Forest Green1–2Altrincham31 Aug · home
Pick: Forest Green 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Luton and Forest Green meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Kenilworth Road, Luton. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Luton win 41.7%, draw 26.6%, Forest Green win 31.7%. The pick is Luton win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.