ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel North - 10 2026

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Home · Elo 1,444
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel Away · Elo 1,416
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed win
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed winPick
42.2%
Draw
28.3%
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%

How much we know

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed history25 matches
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 4 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,444 against 1,416. On rating alone Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.76 goals a game over 25 matches for Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed, against 0.71 over 17 for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel.

  • Defences are close

    Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed concede 1.68 a game, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 1.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed matches, against 47% for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.2
ELO
1416.1
25
ELO · Matches
17
1444.2
Current Team ELO
1416.1
1416.1
Current Opponent ELO
1444.2
28.15
Current ELO Difference
-28.15
0.54
Expected score
0.46
25
History Matches
17
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.23
44.50
Overperformance
39.50
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.30
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
17
0.88
PPG
0.53
20.0%
Win rate
11.8%
28.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
52.0%
Loss rate
70.6%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
7
1.14
PPG
0.86
21.4%
Win rate
14.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
42.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
14
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.76
Goals for per game
0.71
48.0%
Scoring rate
52.9%
44.0%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.79
Goals for per game
1.00
57.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
25
History Matches
17
0.76
Goals Mean
0.71
0.91
Goals Std
0.82
48.0%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
24.0%
Scored 2+ rate
11.8%
4.0%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
0.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.68
Goals against per game
1.82
80.0%
Conceding rate
88.2%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.57
64.3%
Conceding rate
85.7%
25
History Matches
17
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.38
Conceded Std
1.15
48.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
17
0.93
Result entropy
0.73
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.71
7.30
Stability score
26.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
17
4
Lead Matches
3
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.78
7
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
259.0
Rest days
259.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
11
Normal Rest History Matches
7
0.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.14
12
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.15
Portability PPG Range
—
86.96
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.15
PPG0.35
GF0.05
GA-0.14
PPG0.29
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches8
Result entropy0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-19.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.69
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO28.15
Current Opponent ELO-28.15
Current ELO Difference56.30
Expected score0.08
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance5.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

L
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3–0Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed2 Nov · away
Pick: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 53% · hit
W
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan1–2Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed19 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 46% · missed
L
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik3–1Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed9 Sep · away
Pick: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

L
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel0–4Beitar Nahariya19 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 53% · missed
L
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel0–4Hapoel Beit Shean12 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Beit Shean 55% · hit
L
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1–0Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel8 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed and Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel meet in Liga Alef on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed win 42.2%, draw 28.3%, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win 29.5%. The pick is Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.5%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.