ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel North - 10 2026

Tira vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Tira Home · Elo 1,555
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Nazareth Illit Away · Elo 1,425
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tira win
Tira winPick
42.0%
Draw
22.2%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit win
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Tira history26 matches
Hapoel Nazareth Illit history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:40 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tira are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tira are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,425. On rating alone Tira would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Tira score far more

    1.81 goals a game over 26 matches for Tira, against 0.93 over 55 for Hapoel Nazareth Illit.

  • Tira concede fewer

    Tira concede 1.19 a game, Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1.45.

  • Tira games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Tira matches, against 38% for Hapoel Nazareth Illit. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tira
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.3
ELO
1425.0
26
ELO · Matches
55
1555.3
Current Team ELO
1425.0
1425.0
Current Opponent ELO
1555.3
130.3
Current ELO Difference
-130.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
26
History Matches
55
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.07
55.96
Overperformance
44.82
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
55
1.85
PPG
0.85
57.7%
Win rate
16.4%
11.5%
Draw rate
36.4%
30.8%
Loss rate
47.3%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
29
2.15
PPG
0.72
69.2%
Win rate
10.3%
7.7%
Draw rate
41.4%
23.1%
Loss rate
48.3%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
13
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.81
Goals for per game
0.93
73.1%
Scoring rate
60.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.77
Goals for per game
0.90
76.9%
Scoring rate
62.1%
38.5%
BTTS rate
58.6%
26
History Matches
55
1.81
Goals Mean
0.93
1.71
Goals Std
0.91
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
38.5%
Scored 3+ rate
5.5%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.45
65.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.66
53.8%
Conceding rate
82.8%
26
History Matches
55
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.11
Conceded Std
1.11
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.6%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
55
0.85
Result entropy
0.93
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.45
15.42
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
55
9
Lead Matches
9
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
44.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.56
8
Trailing Matches
26
50.0%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
252.7
Rest days
164.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
12
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
13
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.41
Portability PPG Range
0.41
70.97
Portability Score
70.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO130.3
PPG0.99
GF0.88
GA-0.26
PPG1.43
PPG1.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate28.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-29
Goals Mean0.88
Goals Std0.80
Scored 1+ rate13.1%
Scored 2+ rate15.0%
Scored 3+ rate33.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.91
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.87
History Matches-29
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score8.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate23.1%
Trailing Win Rate42.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.13
Rest days87.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.69
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.23
Current Team ELO130.3
Current Opponent ELO-130.3
Current ELO Difference260.7
Expected score0.36
History Matches-29
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance11.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tira

D
Hapoel Beit Shean0–0Tira30 Oct · away
Pick: Tira 41% · missed
L
Hapoel Acre5–0Tira26 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Acre 51% · hit
W
Tira3–2Maccabi Ma'alot Tarshiha12 Oct · home
Pick: Tira 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

W
Hapoel Nazareth Illit2–0Beitar Nahariya2 Nov · home
Pick: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 63% · hit
D
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel3–3Hapoel Nazareth Illit23 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 42% · missed
W
Hapoel Nazareth Illit4–0Hapoel Bnei Musmus12 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tira and Hapoel Nazareth Illit meet in Liga Alef on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:40 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Tira win 42.0%, draw 22.2%, Hapoel Nazareth Illit win 35.8%. The pick is Tira win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.