ScoreProb
Frauen Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

Mainz 05 W vs Stuttgart W

Mainz 05 W Home · Elo 1,569
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stuttgart W Away · Elo 1,613
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stuttgart W win
Mainz 05 W win
36.3%
Draw
23.2%
Stuttgart W winPick
40.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%

How much we know

Mainz 05 W history28 matches
Stuttgart W history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stuttgart W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stuttgart W are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,569. On rating alone Stuttgart W would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.79 goals a game over 28 matches for Mainz 05 W, against 3.07 over 27 for Stuttgart W.

  • Defences are close

    Mainz 05 W concede 1.18 a game, Stuttgart W 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    75% of Mainz 05 W matches, against 74% for Stuttgart W. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mainz 05 W
Stuttgart W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.2
ELO
1613.0
28
ELO · Matches
27
1569.2
Current Team ELO
1613.0
1613.0
Current Opponent ELO
1569.2
-43.84
Current ELO Difference
43.84
0.44
Expected score
0.56
28
History Matches
27
0.13
Residual Mean
0.20
57.59
Overperformance
61.69
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
3.40
Goals for per game
2.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.70
PPG
2.50
3.90
Goals for per game
2.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
90.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
27
1.96
PPG
2.26
60.7%
Win rate
66.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
7.4%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
59.3%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
14
1.80
PPG
2.07
53.3%
Win rate
57.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
35.7%
26.7%
Loss rate
7.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
15
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.79
Goals for per game
3.07
75.0%
Scoring rate
92.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.71
73.3%
Scoring rate
85.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
28
History Matches
27
2.79
Goals Mean
3.07
2.08
Goals Std
2.00
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
92.6%
67.9%
Scored 2+ rate
85.2%
64.3%
Scored 3+ rate
51.9%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.26
67.9%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.14
53.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
28
History Matches
27
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.14
Conceded Std
1.17
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
27
0.84
Result entropy
0.74
2.54
Goal Difference Std
2.19
15.57
Stability score
25.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
27
15
Lead Matches
14
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.90
4
Trailing Matches
3
25.0%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
66.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
1.54
First Half Goals For Mean
1.37
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.70
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.96
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
15
2.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
12
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviationPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-43.84
PPG-0.29
GF-0.29
GA-0.08
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.27
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score-10.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.42
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-43.84
Current Opponent ELO43.84
Current ELO Difference-87.69
Expected score-0.13
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mainz 05 W

L
1899 Hoffenheim W3–1Mainz 05 W25 Oct · away
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W 52% · hit
L
Mainz 05 W0–5VfL Wolfsburg W18 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 62% · hit
L
Bayern Munich W2–0Mainz 05 W31 Aug · away
Pick: Bayern Munich W 85% · hit
L
Mainz 05 W1–2Werder Bremen W24 Aug · home
Pick: Mainz 05 W 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stuttgart W

W
Stuttgart W3–0SGS Essen W30 Oct · home
Pick: Stuttgart W 48% · hit
L
Stuttgart W0–3Eintracht Frankfurt W24 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt W 58% · hit
L
Bayern Munich W5–0Stuttgart W19 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Munich W 79% · hit
L
Stuttgart W0–4Union Berlin W4 Oct · home
Pick: Stuttgart W 60% · missed
W
Stuttgart W2–1Hamburger SV W29 Aug · home
Pick: Hamburger SV W 47% · missed

About this match

Mainz 05 W and Stuttgart W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mainz 05 W win 36.3%, draw 23.2%, Stuttgart W win 40.5%. The pick is Stuttgart W win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.1%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.