ScoreProb
Frauen Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

Union Berlin W vs 1899 Hoffenheim W

Union Berlin W Home · Elo 1,519
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
1899 Hoffenheim W Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W win
Union Berlin W win
29.6%
Draw
21.8%
1899 Hoffenheim W winPick
48.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%

How much we know

Union Berlin W history39 matches
1899 Hoffenheim W history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why 1899 Hoffenheim W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • 1899 Hoffenheim W are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,519. On rating alone 1899 Hoffenheim W would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.08 goals a game over 39 matches for Union Berlin W, against 2.12 over 41 for 1899 Hoffenheim W.

  • 1899 Hoffenheim W concede fewer

    Union Berlin W concede 1.56 a game, 1899 Hoffenheim W 1.29.

  • Union Berlin W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of Union Berlin W matches, against 66% for 1899 Hoffenheim W. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Berlin W
1899 Hoffenheim W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.0
ELO
1555.6
39
ELO · Matches
41
1519.0
Current Team ELO
1555.6
1555.6
Current Opponent ELO
1519.0
-36.61
Current ELO Difference
36.61
0.45
Expected score
0.55
39
History Matches
41
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.62
Overperformance
54.66
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.70
2.10
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
41
1.56
PPG
1.71
46.2%
Win rate
53.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
9.8%
35.9%
Loss rate
36.6%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
48.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
20
1.50
PPG
1.70
45.0%
Win rate
55.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
5.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
20
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.08
Goals for per game
2.12
84.6%
Scoring rate
80.5%
56.4%
BTTS rate
48.8%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.00
85.0%
Scoring rate
85.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
41
2.08
Goals Mean
2.12
1.59
Goals Std
1.84
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.5%
59.0%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
28.2%
Scored 3+ rate
39.0%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.29
71.8%
Conceding rate
63.4%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.10
65.0%
Conceding rate
65.0%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
41
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.32
Conceded Std
1.42
48.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
41
0.94
Result entropy
0.85
2.50
Goal Difference Std
2.44
5.98
Stability score
15.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
41
17
Lead Matches
20
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
95.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.97
12
Trailing Matches
4
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.86
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
17
Normal Rest History Matches
22
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.07
1.65
Portability PPG Range
0.14
37.79
Portability Score
87.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.61
PPG-0.14
GF-0.05
GA0.27
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate11.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-9.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.75
Portability PPG Range1.51
Portability Score-49.94
Rest days1.82
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-36.61
Current Opponent ELO36.61
Current ELO Difference-73.22
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union Berlin W

D
Hamburger SV W4–4Union Berlin W25 Oct · away
Pick: Hamburger SV W 55% · missed
W
Union Berlin W2–1Nürnberg W18 Oct · home
Pick: Union Berlin W 62% · hit
W
Stuttgart W0–4Union Berlin W4 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgart W 60% · missed
L
SC Freiburg W1–0Union Berlin W29 Aug · away
Pick: Union Berlin W 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

1899 Hoffenheim W

L
VfL Wolfsburg W8–01899 Hoffenheim W2 Nov · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 60% · hit
W
1899 Hoffenheim W3–1Mainz 05 W25 Oct · home
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W 52% · hit
W
Nürnberg W1–21899 Hoffenheim W4 Oct · away
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Union Berlin W and 1899 Hoffenheim W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Union Berlin W win 29.6%, draw 21.8%, 1899 Hoffenheim W win 48.6%. The pick is 1899 Hoffenheim W win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.