ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Malaga vs Racing Santander

Malaga Home · Elo 1,586
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Racing Santander Away · Elo 1,572
Estadio La Rosaleda Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Racing Santander win
Malaga win
37.6%
Draw
23.7%
Racing Santander winPick
38.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Malaga history78 matches
Racing Santander history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Racing Santander are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,586 against 1,572. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Racing Santander score more

    1.59 goals a game over 78 matches for Malaga, against 1.84 over 79 for Racing Santander.

  • Malaga concede fewer

    Malaga concede 1.27 a game, Racing Santander 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Malaga matches, against 63% for Racing Santander. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Malaga
Racing Santander
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1585.8
ELO
1572.4
78
ELO · Matches
79
1585.8
Current Team ELO
1572.4
1572.4
Current Opponent ELO
1585.8
13.37
Current ELO Difference
-13.37
0.52
Expected score
0.48
78
History Matches
79
0.05
Residual Mean
0.05
54.34
Overperformance
53.77
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
79
1.56
PPG
1.71
43.6%
Win rate
49.4%
25.6%
Draw rate
22.8%
30.8%
Loss rate
27.8%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.8%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
38
1.85
PPG
1.29
48.7%
Win rate
34.2%
38.5%
Draw rate
26.3%
12.8%
Loss rate
39.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
39
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.84
80.8%
Scoring rate
86.1%
59.0%
BTTS rate
69.6%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.45
87.2%
Scoring rate
78.9%
64.1%
BTTS rate
68.4%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
78
History Matches
79
1.59
Goals Mean
1.84
1.23
Goals Std
1.25
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.1%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
55.7%
21.8%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.44
75.6%
Conceding rate
82.3%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.61
71.8%
Conceding rate
86.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
78
History Matches
79
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.94
Conceded Std
1.14
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.5%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
79
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.79
2.28
Stability score
5.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
79
25
Lead Matches
28
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.1%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.86
20
Trailing Matches
23
60.0%
Non-loss rate
47.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.73
Rest days
75.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
28
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.09
Portability PPG Range
1.77
52.73
Portability Score
45.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.37
PPG-0.14
GF-0.25
GA-0.17
PPG0.00
PPG0.56
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-2.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.00
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate12.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score6.92
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO13.37
Current Opponent ELO-13.37
Current ELO Difference26.73
Expected score0.04
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Malaga

L
Real Betis2–1Malaga31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 63% · hit
W
Alcazar0–3Malaga27 Oct · away
Pick: Malaga 39% · hit
D
Alaves1–1Malaga23 Oct · away
Pick: Alaves 51% · missed
L
Malaga2–5Real Sociedad18 Oct · home
Pick: Malaga 39% · missed
L
Real Madrid4–0Malaga30 Aug · away
Pick: Real Madrid 70% · hit

Racing Santander

L
Racing Santander0–3Real Madrid1 Nov · home
Pick: Real Madrid 52% · hit
W
Ribadesella CF0–2Racing Santander29 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Santander 41% · hit
W
Racing Santander2–1Espanyol24 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Santander 43% · hit
L
Osasuna2–0Racing Santander18 Oct · away
Pick: Osasuna 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Malaga and Racing Santander meet in La Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio La Rosaleda. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Malaga win 37.6%, draw 23.7%, Racing Santander win 38.8%. The pick is Racing Santander win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.