ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad Home · Elo 1,526
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rayo Vallecano Away · Elo 1,575
Anoeta, San Sebastian Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rayo Vallecano win
Real Sociedad win
36.9%
Draw
25.4%
Rayo Vallecano winPick
37.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Real Sociedad history84 matches
Rayo Vallecano history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Rayo Vallecano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rayo Vallecano are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,526. On rating alone Rayo Vallecano would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 84 matches for Real Sociedad, against 1.36 over 83 for Rayo Vallecano.

  • Rayo Vallecano concede fewer

    Real Sociedad concede 1.52 a game, Rayo Vallecano 1.14.

  • Real Sociedad games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Real Sociedad matches, against 48% for Rayo Vallecano. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.3
ELO
1574.6
84
ELO · Matches
83
1526.3
Current Team ELO
1574.6
1574.6
Current Opponent ELO
1526.3
-48.38
Current ELO Difference
48.38
0.43
Expected score
0.57
84
History Matches
83
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.59
Overperformance
52.44
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
83
1.36
PPG
1.49
36.9%
Win rate
41.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.5%
38.1%
Loss rate
32.5%
79.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
48
1.58
PPG
1.27
44.7%
Win rate
37.5%
23.7%
Draw rate
14.6%
31.6%
Loss rate
47.9%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
38
History Matches
48
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.36
77.4%
Scoring rate
75.9%
64.3%
BTTS rate
48.2%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.31
76.3%
Scoring rate
70.8%
57.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
83
1.49
Goals Mean
1.36
1.15
Goals Std
1.21
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
46.4%
Scored 2+ rate
34.9%
20.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.1%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.14
85.7%
Conceding rate
67.5%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.44
78.9%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
83
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.07
Conceded Std
1.08
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.1%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
83
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.79
1.50
Stability score
1.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
83
28
Lead Matches
27
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.77
24
Trailing Matches
22
29.2%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.84
Rest days
84.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
16
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.38
49
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.32
48.24
Portability Score
54.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-48.38
PPG-0.14
GF0.13
GA0.38
PPG0.00
PPG0.31
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate11.5%
Scored 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score0.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-6.34
Rest days-5.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-48.38
Current Opponent ELO48.38
Current ELO Difference-96.75
Expected score-0.14
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Sociedad

L
Athletic Club2–1Real Sociedad1 Nov · away
Pick: Athletic Club 42% · hit
W
Real Sociedad2–1Levante25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Sociedad 48% · hit
W
Lillestrom0–6Real Sociedad22 Oct · away
Pick: Lillestrom 40% · missed
W
Malaga2–5Real Sociedad18 Oct · away
Pick: Malaga 39% · missed
D
Union St. Gilloise1–1Real Sociedad15 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 56% · missed

Rayo Vallecano

W
Rayo Vallecano3–0Celta Vigo31 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · hit
L
Rayo Vallecano0–3Elche24 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 58% · missed
D
Getafe1–1Rayo Vallecano19 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · missed
L
Barcelona5–2Rayo Vallecano31 Aug · away
Pick: Barcelona 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano meet in La Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:15 UTC. The match is played at Anoeta, San Sebastian. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Sociedad win 36.9%, draw 25.4%, Rayo Vallecano win 37.7%. The pick is Rayo Vallecano win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.