Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield
Mansfield Town
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Macclesfield
Match result probability Model pick: Macclesfield win
Mansfield Town win
34.0%
Draw
25.1%
Macclesfield winPick
40.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.9%
No44.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%
How much we know
Mansfield Town history86 matches
Macclesfield history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Macclesfield
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Macclesfield are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Macclesfield are rated 133 Elo points higher
Elo 1,642 against 1,509. On rating alone Macclesfield would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Macclesfield score more
1.38 goals a game over 86 matches for Mansfield Town, against 1.95 over 84 for Macclesfield.
-
Macclesfield concede fewer
Mansfield Town concede 1.48 a game, Macclesfield 1.18.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
57% of Mansfield Town matches, against 62% for Macclesfield. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mansfield Town
Macclesfield
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1509.2
ELO
1642.2
86
ELO · Matches
84
1509.2
Current Team ELO
1642.2
1642.2
Current Opponent ELO
1509.2
-133.0
Current ELO Difference
133.0
0.32
Expected score
0.68
86
History Matches
84
0.00
Residual Mean
0.09
50.36
Overperformance
57.03
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.40
2.10
Goals for per game
1.90
2.20
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
86
Matches
84
1.23
PPG
2.00
31.4%
Win rate
61.9%
29.1%
Draw rate
14.3%
39.5%
Loss rate
23.8%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
57.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
39
1.24
PPG
1.77
33.3%
Win rate
51.3%
23.8%
Draw rate
23.1%
42.9%
Loss rate
25.6%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
42
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.95
74.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
59.3%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.85
73.8%
Scoring rate
87.2%
59.5%
BTTS rate
64.1%
86
History Matches
84
1.38
Goals Mean
1.95
1.22
Goals Std
1.43
74.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
37.2%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.48
Goals against per game
1.18
75.6%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.33
76.2%
Conceding rate
71.8%
86
History Matches
84
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.19
Conceded Std
1.08
46.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
86
History Matches
84
0.99
Result entropy
0.83
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.87
0.81
Stability score
16.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
86
Eligible Matches
83
26
Lead Matches
28
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.94
27
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
21.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
65
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.09
13
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.85
47.00
Portability Score
47.26
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
86
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-133.0
PPG-0.77
GF-0.57
GA0.30
PPG-0.53
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate13.4%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.90
History Matches2
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-15.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.18
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score-0.26
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-133.0
Current Opponent ELO133.0
Current ELO Difference-266.1
Expected score-0.37
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Mansfield Town
L
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W
Bedford Town0–3Macclesfield31 Oct · away
Pick: Macclesfield 49% · hit L
Macclesfield1–2Hereford24 Oct · home
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Macclesfield1–1Anstey Nomads17 Oct · home
Pick: Macclesfield 57% · missed W
Macclesfield3–0Hebburn Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Macclesfield 43% · hit W
Darlington 18831–2Macclesfield29 Aug · away
Pick: Macclesfield 49% · hit About this match
Mansfield Town and Macclesfield meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at One Call Stadium, Mansfield. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mansfield Town win 34.0%, draw 25.1%, Macclesfield win 40.9%. The pick is Macclesfield win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.9%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.