ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - VFV A Belgium VFV A - 11 2026

Mechelen II vs HO Kalken

Mechelen II Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
HO Kalken Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mechelen II win
Mechelen II winPick
52.2%
Draw
20.8%
HO Kalken win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.4%
No38.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

Mechelen II history41 matches
HO Kalken history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mechelen II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,470 against 1,478. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mechelen II score more

    1.68 goals a game over 41 matches for Mechelen II, against 1.51 over 37 for HO Kalken.

  • Defences are close

    Mechelen II concede 1.98 a game, HO Kalken 1.84.

  • Mechelen II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    85% of Mechelen II matches, against 62% for HO Kalken. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mechelen II
HO Kalken
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.6
ELO
1478.1
41
ELO · Matches
37
1469.6
Current Team ELO
1478.1
1478.1
Current Opponent ELO
1469.6
-8.52
Current ELO Difference
8.52
0.49
Expected score
0.51
41
History Matches
37
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.13
Overperformance
48.25
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.63
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
37
1.12
PPG
1.32
34.1%
Win rate
37.8%
9.8%
Draw rate
18.9%
56.1%
Loss rate
43.2%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
91.9%
85.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
51.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
18
1.00
PPG
1.28
27.3%
Win rate
38.9%
18.2%
Draw rate
11.1%
54.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
90.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.65
22
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.68
Goals for per game
1.51
75.6%
Scoring rate
73.0%
61.0%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.56
81.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
63.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
41
History Matches
37
1.68
Goals Mean
1.51
1.40
Goals Std
1.46
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.98
Goals against per game
1.84
82.9%
Conceding rate
86.5%
1.91
Goals against per game
1.94
77.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
41
History Matches
37
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.33
Conceded Std
1.35
61.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
41.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.7%
1.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
37
0.84
Result entropy
0.95
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.25
16.42
Stability score
4.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
19
8
Lead Matches
4
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
12
16.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.21
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.26
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
203.0
Rest days
195.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.13
87.50
Portability Score
88.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-8.52
PPG-0.20
GF0.17
GA0.14
PPG-0.28
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Conceded 2+ rate12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score11.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-1.11
Rest days7.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO-8.52
Current Opponent ELO8.52
Current ELO Difference-17.04
Expected score-0.02
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mechelen II

D
KRC Gent1–1Mechelen II31 Oct · away
Pick: Mechelen II 44% · missed
D
Mechelen II1–1Oostkamp24 Oct · home
Pick: Mechelen II 46% · missed
W
Mechelen II4–2Zulte Waregem II17 Oct · home
Pick: Zulte Waregem II 46% · missed
L
Londerzeel2–1Mechelen II30 Aug · away
Pick: Londerzeel 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

HO Kalken

W
HO Kalken4–1RFC Wetteren1 Nov · home
Pick: HO Kalken 43% · hit
D
Londerzeel1–1HO Kalken25 Oct · away
Pick: Londerzeel 54% · missed
W
HO Kalken3–1Torhout18 Oct · home
Pick: Torhout 50% · missed
L
HO Kalken2–3Oudenaarde30 Aug · home
Pick: Oudenaarde 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mechelen II and HO Kalken meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mechelen II win 52.2%, draw 20.8%, HO Kalken win 27.0%. The pick is Mechelen II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.