ScoreProb
Azadegan League Iran Round 9 2026

Mes Kerman vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Mes Kerman Home · Elo 1,490
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naft Masjed Soleyman Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mes Kerman win
Mes Kerman winPick
58.5%
Draw
25.4%
Naft Masjed Soleyman win
16.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.2%
No58.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.533.0%
Under 2.567.0%

How much we know

Mes Kerman history50 matches
Naft Masjed Soleyman history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mes Kerman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,490 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Naft Masjed Soleyman score far more

    0.60 goals a game over 50 matches for Mes Kerman, against 1.20 over 15 for Naft Masjed Soleyman.

  • Mes Kerman concede fewer

    Mes Kerman concede 0.56 a game, Naft Masjed Soleyman 0.80.

  • Naft Masjed Soleyman games more often go over 2.5 goals

    14% of Mes Kerman matches, against 33% for Naft Masjed Soleyman. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mes Kerman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.1
ELO
1515.1
50
ELO · Matches
15
1490.1
Current Team ELO
1515.1
1515.1
Current Opponent ELO
1490.1
-25.00
Current ELO Difference
25.00
0.46
Expected score
0.54
50
History Matches
15
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.31
Overperformance
52.95
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
15
1.20
PPG
1.47
24.0%
Win rate
33.3%
48.0%
Draw rate
46.7%
28.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
34.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
14.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
2.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
6
1.08
PPG
1.33
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
48.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
32.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
32.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
4.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
25
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
48.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
26.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.56
Goals for per game
1.00
44.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
28.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
15
0.60
Goals Mean
1.20
0.69
Goals Std
1.51
48.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
12.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
0.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.56
Goals against per game
0.80
44.0%
Conceding rate
46.7%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.17
48.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
15
0.56
Conceded Mean
0.80
0.70
Conceded Std
0.91
12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
56.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
56.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
15
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
0.87
Goal Difference Std
1.82
4.31
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
15
9
Lead Matches
2
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.67
9
Trailing Matches
5
22.2%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.24
First Half Goals For Mean
0.13
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
119.8
Rest days
538.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
17
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.07
Portability PPG Std
—
0.15
Portability PPG Range
—
87.13
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-25.00
PPG-0.27
GF-0.60
GA-0.24
PPG-0.25
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches35
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate39.3%
History Matches35
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.82
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.08
History Matches35
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches35
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.95
Stability score-0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.22
Eligible Matches35
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches35
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-419.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-25.00
Current Opponent ELO25.00
Current ELO Difference-50.00
Expected score-0.07
History Matches35
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-3.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mes Kerman

L
Naft Gachsaran2–1Mes Kerman2 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
D
Mes Kerman1–1Shahin Bandar Ameri26 Oct · home
Pick: Mes Kerman 60% · missed
L
Shenavarsazi Qeshm1–0Mes Kerman20 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
L
Mes Kerman0–1Mes Rafsanjan12 Oct · home
Pick: Mes Kerman 45% · missed
D
Niroye Zamini0–0Mes Kerman5 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 41% · hit

Naft Masjed Soleyman

L
Mes Soongoun2–1Naft Masjed Soleyman26 Oct · away
Pick: Mes Soongoun 53% · hit
D
Naft Masjed Soleyman1–1Saipa19 Oct · home
Pick: Saipa 40% · missed
W
Naft Masjed Soleyman1–0Fard Alborz4 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mes Kerman and Naft Masjed Soleyman meet in Azadegan League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mes Kerman win 58.5%, draw 25.4%, Naft Masjed Soleyman win 16.1%. The pick is Mes Kerman win. Over 2.5 goals: 33.0%. Both teams to score: 41.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.