Novin Ahvaz vs Ario Eslamshahr
Novin Ahvaz
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ario Eslamshahr
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Novin Ahvaz win
33.8%
DrawPick
41.3%
Ario Eslamshahr win
24.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.4%
No54.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.539.8%
Under 2.560.2%
How much we know
Novin Ahvaz history0 matches
Ario Eslamshahr history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre9 Nov · 13:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Novin Ahvaz
Ario Eslamshahr
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1512.8
0
ELO · Matches
49
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1512.8
1512.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-12.84
Current ELO Difference
12.84
0.48
Expected score
0.52
0
History Matches
49
—
Residual Mean
0.01
—
Overperformance
51.05
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.60
—
Goals for per game
1.20
—
Goals against per game
0.80
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.50
—
Goals for per game
0.80
—
Goals against per game
0.50
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.78
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
49
—
PPG
1.39
—
Win rate
30.6%
—
Draw rate
46.9%
—
Loss rate
22.4%
—
Over 1.5 rate
32.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
12.2%
—
Over 3.5 rate
6.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.96
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
24
—
PPG
1.13
—
Win rate
20.8%
—
Draw rate
50.0%
—
Loss rate
29.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
37.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
0
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
0.67
—
Scoring rate
49.0%
—
BTTS rate
24.5%
—
Goals for per game
0.67
—
Scoring rate
45.8%
—
BTTS rate
29.2%
0
History Matches
49
—
Goals Mean
0.67
—
Goals Std
0.82
—
Scored 1+ rate
49.0%
—
Scored 2+ rate
14.3%
—
Scored 3+ rate
4.1%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.55
—
Conceding rate
46.9%
—
Goals against per game
0.71
—
Conceding rate
58.3%
0
History Matches
49
—
Conceded Mean
0.55
—
Conceded Std
0.64
—
Conceded 2+ rate
8.2%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
53.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
51.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
53.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
51.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
53.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
49
—
Result entropy
0.96
—
Goal Difference Std
0.96
—
Stability score
4.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
48
0
Lead Matches
10
—
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.80
0
Trailing Matches
7
—
Non-loss rate
28.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.23
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.35
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
114.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
30
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
0
Long Rest History Matches
18
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.40
—
Portability Score
71.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-12.84
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-49
History Matches-24
History Matches-49
History Matches-49
History Matches-49
Eligible Matches-48
Lead Matches-10
Trailing Matches-7
Halftime Coverage Matches-48
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-30
Long Rest History Matches-18
Current Team ELO-12.84
Current Opponent ELO12.84
Current ELO Difference-25.68
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-49
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Novin Ahvaz
W
Naft Bandar Abbas0–1Novin Ahvaz2 Nov · away
Pick: Naft Bandar Abbas 60% · missed D
Novin Ahvaz0–0Be'sat Kermanshah27 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 40% · hit W
Havadar0–1Novin Ahvaz19 Oct · away
Pick: Havadar 65% · missed D
Naft Gachsaran1–1Novin Ahvaz4 Oct · away
Pick: Naft Gachsaran 61% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ario Eslamshahr
L
Ario Eslamshahr0–3Fard Alborz2 Nov · home
Pick: Ario Eslamshahr 47% · missed L
Pars Jonoubi JAM1–0Ario Eslamshahr27 Oct · away
Pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM 41% · hit W
Ario Eslamshahr4–0Naft Bandar Abbas20 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 43% · missed W
Ario Eslamshahr2–1Be'sat Kermanshah12 Oct · home
Pick: Ario Eslamshahr 41% · hit L
Mes Rafsanjan1–0Ario Eslamshahr5 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · missed About this match
Novin Ahvaz and Ario Eslamshahr meet in Azadegan League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 13:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Novin Ahvaz win 33.8%, draw 41.3%, Ario Eslamshahr win 24.9%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 39.8%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.