ScoreProb
Azadegan League Iran Round 9 2026

Mes Soongoun vs Naft Gachsaran

Mes Soongoun Home · Elo 1,476
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naft Gachsaran Away · Elo 1,450
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Mes Soongoun win
28.2%
DrawPick
40.1%
Naft Gachsaran win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.6%
No56.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%

How much we know

Mes Soongoun history49 matches
Naft Gachsaran history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mes Soongoun are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,476 against 1,450. On rating alone Mes Soongoun would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Naft Gachsaran score more

    0.59 goals a game over 49 matches for Mes Soongoun, against 0.75 over 51 for Naft Gachsaran.

  • Defences are close

    Mes Soongoun concede 0.98 a game, Naft Gachsaran 1.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    20% of Mes Soongoun matches, against 25% for Naft Gachsaran. The model puts this match at 32% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mes Soongoun
Naft Gachsaran
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.4
ELO
1449.9
49
ELO · Matches
51
1476.4
Current Team ELO
1449.9
1449.9
Current Opponent ELO
1476.4
26.44
Current ELO Difference
-26.44
0.54
Expected score
0.46
49
History Matches
51
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.04
48.04
Overperformance
46.92
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
0.80
Goals for per game
0.70
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
1.08
PPG
1.08
24.5%
Win rate
21.6%
34.7%
Draw rate
43.1%
40.8%
Loss rate
35.3%
42.9%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
20.4%
Over 2.5 rate
25.5%
8.2%
Over 3.5 rate
9.8%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.65
PPG
0.88
43.5%
Win rate
12.5%
34.8%
Draw rate
50.0%
21.7%
Loss rate
37.5%
43.5%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
17.4%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
4.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.59
Goals for per game
0.75
44.9%
Scoring rate
52.9%
24.5%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.91
Goals for per game
0.75
65.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
30.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
51
0.59
Goals Mean
0.75
0.75
Goals Std
0.84
44.9%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
12.2%
Scored 2+ rate
17.6%
2.0%
Scored 3+ rate
3.9%
0.91
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
1.06
61.2%
Conceding rate
68.6%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.17
52.2%
Conceding rate
70.8%
49
History Matches
51
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.13
Conceded Std
0.98
22.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
55.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
55.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.21
1.92
Stability score
3.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
50
8
Lead Matches
11
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
12
23.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.23
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
115.8
Rest days
115.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.10
89.19
Portability Score
90.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO26.44
PPG0.00
GF-0.15
GA-0.08
PPG0.78
PPG1.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.87
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-1.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-1.40
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO26.44
Current Opponent ELO-26.44
Current ELO Difference52.87
Expected score0.08
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mes Soongoun

D
Havadar0–0Mes Soongoun1 Nov · away
Pick: Havadar 44% · missed
W
Mes Soongoun2–1Naft Masjed Soleyman26 Oct · home
Pick: Mes Soongoun 53% · hit
W
Shahin Bandar Ameri2–3Mes Soongoun19 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
W
Mes Soongoun1–0Niroye Zamini12 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Naft Gachsaran

W
Naft Gachsaran2–1Mes Kerman2 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
W
Saipa0–1Naft Gachsaran27 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
W
Naft Gachsaran4–2Fard Alborz19 Oct · home
Pick: Naft Gachsaran 46% · hit
L
Pars Jonoubi JAM1–0Naft Gachsaran12 Oct · away
Pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM 39% · hit
D
Naft Gachsaran1–1Novin Ahvaz4 Oct · home
Pick: Naft Gachsaran 61% · missed

About this match

Mes Soongoun and Naft Gachsaran meet in Azadegan League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Mes Soongoun win 28.2%, draw 40.1%, Naft Gachsaran win 31.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 32.5%. Both teams to score: 43.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.