Saipa vs Havadar
Saipa
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Havadar
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Saipa win
37.3%
DrawPick
39.6%
Havadar win
23.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes42.7%
No57.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.531.2%
Under 2.568.8%
How much we know
Saipa history49 matches
Havadar history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre9 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Saipa are rated 30 Elo points higher
Elo 1,562 against 1,532. On rating alone Saipa would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Havadar score more
0.84 goals a game over 49 matches for Saipa, against 0.96 over 48 for Havadar.
-
Saipa concede fewer
Saipa concede 0.63 a game, Havadar 0.96.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
24% of Saipa matches, against 31% for Havadar. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 17 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saipa
Havadar
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1562.1
ELO
1531.7
49
ELO · Matches
48
1562.1
Current Team ELO
1531.7
1531.7
Current Opponent ELO
1562.1
30.36
Current ELO Difference
-30.36
0.54
Expected score
0.46
49
History Matches
48
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.28
Overperformance
52.87
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.50
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
48
1.59
PPG
1.35
40.8%
Win rate
29.2%
36.7%
Draw rate
47.9%
22.4%
Loss rate
22.9%
38.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
24.5%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
6.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
22
1.83
PPG
1.27
45.8%
Win rate
27.3%
45.8%
Draw rate
45.5%
8.3%
Loss rate
27.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
4.2%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.84
Goals for per game
0.96
67.3%
Scoring rate
56.3%
30.6%
BTTS rate
35.4%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.68
70.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
29.2%
BTTS rate
27.3%
49
History Matches
48
0.84
Goals Mean
0.96
0.71
Goals Std
1.00
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
56.3%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
2.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.2%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.68
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.63
Goals against per game
0.96
40.8%
Conceding rate
54.2%
0.42
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
48
0.63
Conceded Mean
0.96
0.87
Conceded Std
1.14
18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
59.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
59.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
59.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.05
Goal Difference Std
1.49
2.70
Stability score
4.47
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
48
11
Lead Matches
16
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
4
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
115.8
Rest days
120.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
34
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.47
70.05
Portability Score
68.09
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.36
PPG0.24
GF-0.12
GA-0.33
PPG0.56
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-1.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score1.96
Rest days-5.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO30.36
Current Opponent ELO-30.36
Current ELO Difference60.73
Expected score0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Saipa
D
Be'sat Kermanshah0–0Saipa2 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 42% · hit L
Saipa0–1Naft Gachsaran27 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed D
Naft Masjed Soleyman1–1Saipa19 Oct · away
Pick: Saipa 40% · missed L
Saipa0–1Shenavarsazi Qeshm12 Oct · home
Pick: Saipa 48% · missed L
Shahin Bandar Ameri2–0Saipa4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 43% · missed Havadar
D
Havadar0–0Mes Soongoun1 Nov · home
Pick: Havadar 44% · missed L
Fard Alborz2–0Havadar26 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed L
Havadar0–1Novin Ahvaz19 Oct · home
Pick: Havadar 65% · missed D
Naft Bandar Abbas1–1Havadar12 Oct · away
Pick: Naft Bandar Abbas 38% · missed L
Havadar0–1Pars Jonoubi JAM5 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · missed About this match
Saipa and Havadar meet in Azadegan League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Saipa win 37.3%, draw 39.6%, Havadar win 23.1%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 31.2%. Both teams to score: 42.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.