ScoreProb
1. Liga Latvia Round 26 2026

Metta / LU vs Mārupe

Metta / LU Home · Elo 1,586
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mārupe Away · Elo 1,465
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Metta / LU win
Metta / LU winPick
72.9%
Draw
15.5%
Mārupe win
11.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.8%
Under 2.525.2%

How much we know

Metta / LU history70 matches
Mārupe history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.9%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Metta / LU are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Metta / LU are rated 121 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,465. On rating alone Metta / LU would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Metta / LU score far more

    2.16 goals a game over 70 matches for Metta / LU, against 1.37 over 51 for Mārupe.

  • Defences are close

    Metta / LU concede 1.63 a game, Mārupe 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Metta / LU matches, against 65% for Mārupe. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Metta / LU
Mārupe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.2
ELO
1465.4
70
ELO · Matches
51
1586.2
Current Team ELO
1465.4
1465.4
Current Opponent ELO
1586.2
120.9
Current ELO Difference
-120.9
0.67
Expected score
0.33
70
History Matches
51
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
53.99
Overperformance
47.48
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
5.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.00
4.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
2.10
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
4.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
3.29
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
51
1.41
PPG
1.31
42.9%
Win rate
41.2%
12.9%
Draw rate
7.8%
44.3%
Loss rate
51.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
54.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
3.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.73
PPG
1.35
53.3%
Win rate
42.3%
13.3%
Draw rate
7.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
76.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
3.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.16
Goals for per game
1.37
74.3%
Scoring rate
72.5%
54.3%
BTTS rate
51.0%
2.90
Goals for per game
1.31
73.3%
Scoring rate
69.2%
56.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4.18
Goals for per game
1.61
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
52.9%
BTTS rate
55.6%
70
History Matches
51
2.16
Goals Mean
1.37
2.30
Goals Std
1.25
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
52.9%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
32.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.7%
2.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.47
78.6%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.46
80.0%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.67
52.9%
Conceding rate
72.2%
70
History Matches
51
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.30
Conceded Std
1.32
48.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.3%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.6%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
51
0.90
Result entropy
0.83
3.02
Goal Difference Std
2.07
10.11
Stability score
17.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
51
22
Lead Matches
10
95.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
1.00
21
Trailing Matches
21
28.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.88
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
43
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
2.59
PPG
1.39
82.4%
Win rate
44.4%
11.8%
Draw rate
5.6%
5.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
70.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
3.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
17
Current Competition Matches
18
2.59
Current Competition PPG
1.39
3.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.06
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.79
Portability PPG Range
0.77
40.88
Portability Score
62.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO120.9
PPG0.10
GF0.78
GA0.16
PPG1.20
PPG0.39
PPG0.80
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.78
Goals Std1.05
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.6%
Scored 3+ rate19.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean3.30
Recent 10 Goals Std2.35
History Matches19
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches19
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.95
Stability score-7.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.23
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.41
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range1.02
Portability Score-21.55
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO120.9
Current Opponent ELO-120.9
Current ELO Difference241.7
Expected score0.33
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Metta / LU

W
Skanste1–2Metta / LU31 Oct · away
Pick: Metta / LU 69% · hit
W
Metta / LU2–0Leevon / PPK24 Oct · home
Pick: Metta / LU 65% · hit
W
Super Nova 21–3Metta / LU17 Oct · away
Pick: Metta / LU 51% · hit
W
Smiltene0–6Metta / LU29 Aug · away
Pick: Metta / LU 73% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mārupe

D
Smiltene1–1Mārupe31 Oct · away
Pick: Mārupe 53% · missed
L
Mārupe1–6Riga Mariners24 Oct · home
Pick: Riga Mariners 65% · hit
D
JFK Ventspils0–0Mārupe18 Oct · away
Pick: Mārupe 40% · missed
L
Mārupe0–2JDFS Alberts29 Aug · home
Pick: JDFS Alberts 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Metta / LU and Mārupe meet in 1. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Metta / LU win 72.9%, draw 15.5%, Mārupe win 11.6%. The pick is Metta / LU win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.8%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.