ScoreProb
Challenge League Malta Round 7 2026

Mgarr United vs Naxxar Lions

Mgarr United Home · Elo 1,490
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naxxar Lions Away · Elo 1,499
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Naxxar Lions win
Mgarr United win
24.3%
Draw
22.4%
Naxxar Lions winPick
53.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Mgarr United history35 matches
Naxxar Lions history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Naxxar Lions are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,490 against 1,499. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mgarr United score more

    1.66 goals a game over 35 matches for Mgarr United, against 1.35 over 55 for Naxxar Lions.

  • Defences are close

    Mgarr United concede 1.54 a game, Naxxar Lions 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Mgarr United matches, against 49% for Naxxar Lions. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.1
ELO
1498.9
35
ELO · Matches
55
1490.1
Current Team ELO
1498.9
1498.9
Current Opponent ELO
1490.1
-8.80
Current ELO Difference
8.80
0.49
Expected score
0.51
35
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.24
Overperformance
48.62
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
55
1.40
PPG
1.27
37.1%
Win rate
34.5%
28.6%
Draw rate
23.6%
34.3%
Loss rate
41.8%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
33
1.06
PPG
1.21
27.8%
Win rate
33.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
21.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
18
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.66
Goals for per game
1.35
82.9%
Scoring rate
70.9%
62.9%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.39
83.3%
Scoring rate
69.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
51.5%
35
History Matches
55
1.66
Goals Mean
1.35
1.31
Goals Std
1.32
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
34.5%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
1.45
74.3%
Conceding rate
78.2%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.64
83.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
35
History Matches
55
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.38
Conceded Std
1.17
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
25.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.6%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.91
0.53
Stability score
2.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
55
9
Lead Matches
20
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
20
18.2%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.8
Rest days
182.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.94
72.00
Portability Score
56.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-8.80
PPG0.13
GF0.31
GA0.09
PPG-0.16
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate11.2%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate12.8%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate8.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score15.64
Rest days21.66
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-8.80
Current Opponent ELO8.80
Current ELO Difference-17.60
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-20
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mgarr United

D
Fgura United2–2Mgarr United1 Nov · away
Pick: Mgarr United 40% · missed
L
Mgarr United0–1Zurrieq25 Oct · home
Pick: Zurrieq 44% · hit
W
St. Andrews0–2Mgarr United17 Oct · away
Pick: St. Andrews 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Naxxar Lions

W
Naxxar Lions2–1Gudja United1 Nov · home
Pick: Naxxar Lions 57% · hit
D
Santa Lucía1–1Naxxar Lions24 Oct · away
Pick: Naxxar Lions 53% · missed
W
Naxxar Lions1–0Victoria Hotspurs18 Oct · home
Pick: Naxxar Lions 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mgarr United and Naxxar Lions meet in Challenge League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mgarr United win 24.3%, draw 22.4%, Naxxar Lions win 53.3%. The pick is Naxxar Lions win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.