ScoreProb
Challenge League Malta Round 7 2026

Santa Lucía vs Tarxien Rainbows

Santa Lucía Home · Elo 1,502
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tarxien Rainbows Away · Elo 1,440
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tarxien Rainbows win
Santa Lucía win
35.7%
Draw
23.0%
Tarxien Rainbows winPick
41.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.7%
No38.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%

How much we know

Santa Lucía history35 matches
Tarxien Rainbows history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tarxien Rainbows are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Santa Lucía are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,440. On rating alone Santa Lucía would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Santa Lucía score far more

    1.83 goals a game over 35 matches for Santa Lucía, against 1.14 over 50 for Tarxien Rainbows.

  • Defences are close

    Santa Lucía concede 1.63 a game, Tarxien Rainbows 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Santa Lucía matches, against 54% for Tarxien Rainbows. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santa Lucía
Tarxien Rainbows
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.2
ELO
1439.8
35
ELO · Matches
50
1502.2
Current Team ELO
1439.8
1439.8
Current Opponent ELO
1502.2
62.44
Current ELO Difference
-62.44
0.59
Expected score
0.41
35
History Matches
50
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.65
Overperformance
45.80
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
50
1.34
PPG
0.98
31.4%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
38.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
42.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
25
1.31
PPG
0.96
31.3%
Win rate
20.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
36.0%
31.3%
Loss rate
44.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
16
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.83
Goals for per game
1.14
77.1%
Scoring rate
68.0%
65.7%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.12
75.0%
Scoring rate
68.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
64.0%
35
History Matches
50
1.83
Goals Mean
1.14
1.68
Goals Std
1.10
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.0%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
1.52
82.9%
Conceding rate
86.0%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.64
81.3%
Conceding rate
88.0%
35
History Matches
50
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.29
Conceded Std
1.04
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.0%
22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
50
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.50
0.95
Stability score
4.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
50
10
Lead Matches
8
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.71
10
Trailing Matches
22
30.0%
Non-loss rate
40.9%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.0
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.99
92.52
Portability Score
50.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO62.44
PPG0.36
GF0.69
GA0.11
PPG0.35
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.69
Goals Std0.59
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate20.6%
Scored 3+ rate14.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score-3.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.46
Portability PPG Range-0.91
Portability Score42.38
Rest days20.72
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO62.44
Current Opponent ELO-62.44
Current ELO Difference124.9
Expected score0.18
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santa Lucía

L
Swieqi United2–0Santa Lucía1 Nov · away
Pick: Swieqi United 48% · hit
D
Santa Lucía1–1Naxxar Lions24 Oct · home
Pick: Naxxar Lions 53% · missed
D
Fgura United0–0Santa Lucía17 Oct · away
Pick: Fgura United 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tarxien Rainbows

W
Tarxien Rainbows2–1Victoria Hotspurs30 Oct · home
Pick: Tarxien Rainbows 73% · hit
W
Sirens1–2Tarxien Rainbows24 Oct · away
Pick: Tarxien Rainbows 41% · hit
W
Tarxien Rainbows2–1Zebbug Rangers18 Oct · home
Pick: Tarxien Rainbows 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Santa Lucía and Tarxien Rainbows meet in Challenge League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Santa Lucía win 35.7%, draw 23.0%, Tarxien Rainbows win 41.3%. The pick is Tarxien Rainbows win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.8%. Both teams to score: 61.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.