ScoreProb
2. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Middelfart vs Naestved

Middelfart Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naestved Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Middelfart win
Middelfart winPick
51.4%
Draw
21.9%
Naestved win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Middelfart history68 matches
Naestved history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 4 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Middelfart are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Naestved are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,452. On rating alone Naestved would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 68 matches for Middelfart, against 1.27 over 74 for Naestved.

  • Naestved concede fewer

    Middelfart concede 1.81 a game, Naestved 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Middelfart matches, against 57% for Naestved. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Middelfart
Naestved
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.8
ELO
1529.5
68
ELO · Matches
74
1451.8
Current Team ELO
1529.5
1529.5
Current Opponent ELO
1451.8
-77.67
Current ELO Difference
77.67
0.39
Expected score
0.61
68
History Matches
74
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.97
Overperformance
51.83
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
74
1.21
PPG
1.38
33.8%
Win rate
37.8%
19.1%
Draw rate
24.3%
47.1%
Loss rate
37.8%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
42.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
36
1.38
PPG
1.53
40.5%
Win rate
47.2%
16.2%
Draw rate
11.1%
43.2%
Loss rate
41.7%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
73.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
37
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.27
73.5%
Scoring rate
73.0%
54.4%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.39
75.7%
Scoring rate
69.4%
51.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
74
1.37
Goals Mean
1.27
1.17
Goals Std
1.07
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
39.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
1.54
76.5%
Conceding rate
77.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.75
73.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
68
History Matches
74
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.68
Conceded Std
1.28
47.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
74
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.82
5.55
Stability score
1.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
73
21
Lead Matches
21
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.78
18
Trailing Matches
27
11.1%
Non-loss rate
29.6%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.85
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
29
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.25
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.53
Portability PPG Range
0.95
47.23
Portability Score
60.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-77.67
PPG-0.17
GF0.10
GA0.27
PPG0.50
PPG-0.15
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate0.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.5%
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score3.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.16
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-13.68
Rest days-2.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-77.67
Current Opponent ELO77.67
Current ELO Difference-155.3
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Middelfart

L
Fremad Amager2–1Middelfart31 Oct · away
Pick: Middelfart 40% · missed
D
Middelfart3–3Skive24 Oct · home
Pick: Middelfart 54% · missed
D
Middelfart3–3Roskilde17 Oct · home
Pick: Middelfart 48% · missed
W
HIK1–2Middelfart29 Aug · away
Pick: Middelfart 38% · hit
W
OKS0–1Middelfart25 Aug · away
Pick: Middelfart 52% · hit

Naestved

D
Naestved0–0Roskilde31 Oct · home
Pick: Roskilde 37% · missed
D
VSK Århus2–2Naestved24 Oct · away
Pick: VSK Århus 59% · missed
W
Naestved2–1B 9316 Oct · home
Pick: Naestved 48% · hit
W
Skive1–2Naestved30 Aug · away
Pick: Skive 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Middelfart and Naestved meet in 2. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Middelfart win 51.4%, draw 21.9%, Naestved win 26.7%. The pick is Middelfart win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.