ScoreProb
Professional Development League England Regular Season 2026

Millwall U21 vs Cardiff City U21

Millwall U21 Home · Elo 1,461
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cardiff City U21 Away · Elo 1,497
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cardiff City U21 win
Millwall U21 win
36.1%
Draw
19.1%
Cardiff City U21 winPick
44.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.2%
No35.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%

How much we know

Millwall U21 history53 matches
Cardiff City U21 history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cardiff City U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cardiff City U21 are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,497 against 1,461. On rating alone Cardiff City U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.77 goals a game over 53 matches for Millwall U21, against 1.75 over 65 for Cardiff City U21.

  • Defences are close

    Millwall U21 concede 1.77 a game, Cardiff City U21 1.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Millwall U21 matches, against 65% for Cardiff City U21. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Millwall U21
Cardiff City U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.7
ELO
1497.0
53
ELO · Matches
65
1460.7
Current Team ELO
1497.0
1497.0
Current Opponent ELO
1460.7
-36.29
Current ELO Difference
36.29
0.45
Expected score
0.55
53
History Matches
65
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
47.13
Overperformance
49.76
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
2.20
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
2.10
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
65
1.40
PPG
1.34
41.5%
Win rate
36.9%
15.1%
Draw rate
23.1%
43.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
94.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.6%
47.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
33
1.73
PPG
1.12
53.8%
Win rate
27.3%
11.5%
Draw rate
30.3%
34.6%
Loss rate
42.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
26
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.75
81.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
62.3%
BTTS rate
64.6%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.48
96.2%
Scoring rate
69.7%
65.4%
BTTS rate
57.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
65
1.77
Goals Mean
1.75
1.33
Goals Std
1.59
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
58.5%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.77
Goals against per game
1.63
81.1%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.73
Goals against per game
1.79
69.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
65
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.40
Conceded Std
1.28
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.7%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
65
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.19
7.82
Stability score
2.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
62
21
Lead Matches
21
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.75
19
Trailing Matches
22
10.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.06
Rest days
73.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
29
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
1
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.91
Portability PPG Std
0.15
2.23
Portability PPG Range
0.43
35.42
Portability Score
76.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.29
PPG0.06
GF0.02
GA0.14
PPG-1.50
PPG0.61
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate1.1%
Scored 2+ rate15.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score5.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.76
Portability PPG Range1.80
Portability Score-40.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-36.29
Current Opponent ELO36.29
Current ELO Difference-72.58
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Millwall U21

W
Bristol City U211–3Millwall U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol City U21 54% · missed
L
Fleetwood Town U211–0Millwall U211 Sep · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town U21 47% · hit
L
Millwall U212–4Huddersfield Town U2125 Aug · home
Pick: Millwall U21 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cardiff City U21

L
AFC Bournemouth U213–2Cardiff City U212 Nov · away
Pick: AFC Bournemouth U21 42% · hit
D
Cardiff City U212–2Coventry City U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff City U21 63% · missed
W
Charlton Athletic U213–4Cardiff City U2123 Oct · away
Pick: Cardiff City U21 47% · hit
D
Queens Park Rangers U211–1Cardiff City U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Cardiff City U21 48% · missed
D
Cardiff City U210–0Sheffield Wednesday U211 Sep · home
Pick: Cardiff City U21 64% · missed

About this match

Millwall U21 and Cardiff City U21 meet in Professional Development League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Millwall U21 win 36.1%, draw 19.1%, Cardiff City U21 win 44.8%. The pick is Cardiff City U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 64.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.