Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Swindon Town
Match result probability Model pick: Milton Keynes Dons win
Milton Keynes Dons winPick
43.4%
Draw
23.5%
Swindon Town win
33.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.7%
Under 2.541.3%
How much we know
Milton Keynes Dons history85 matches
Swindon Town history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Milton Keynes Dons
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Milton Keynes Dons are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,559 against 1,534. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Swindon Town score more
1.41 goals a game over 85 matches for Milton Keynes Dons, against 1.84 over 86 for Swindon Town.
-
Defences are close
Milton Keynes Dons concede 1.29 a game, Swindon Town 1.28.
-
Swindon Town games more often go over 2.5 goals
52% of Milton Keynes Dons matches, against 66% for Swindon Town. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1558.5
ELO
1533.6
85
ELO · Matches
86
1558.5
Current Team ELO
1533.6
1533.6
Current Opponent ELO
1558.5
24.91
Current ELO Difference
-24.91
0.54
Expected score
0.46
85
History Matches
86
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.60
Overperformance
51.22
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals 90
85
Matches
86
1.40
PPG
1.71
37.6%
Win rate
50.0%
27.1%
Draw rate
20.9%
35.3%
Loss rate
29.1%
75.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.2%
51.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.3%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
44
1.61
PPG
1.66
44.4%
Win rate
50.0%
27.8%
Draw rate
15.9%
27.8%
Loss rate
34.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
36
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.41
Goals for per game
1.84
71.8%
Scoring rate
83.7%
54.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.86
72.2%
Scoring rate
84.1%
52.8%
BTTS rate
54.5%
85
History Matches
86
1.41
Goals Mean
1.84
1.30
Goals Std
1.31
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
57.0%
16.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.28
74.1%
Conceding rate
69.8%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.30
66.7%
Conceding rate
68.2%
85
History Matches
86
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.11
Conceded Std
1.18
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.0%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
85
History Matches
86
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.86
0.87
Stability score
5.97
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
85
Eligible Matches
86
36
Lead Matches
25
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
22
Trailing Matches
23
22.7%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
64
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.58
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.67
36.41
Portability Score
46.17
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
85
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO24.91
PPG-0.31
GF-0.43
GA0.02
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-5.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-9.76
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO24.91
Current Opponent ELO-24.91
Current ELO Difference49.82
Expected score0.07
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Milton Keynes Dons
W
Milton Keynes Dons6–1Doncaster31 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 49% · hit W
Milton Keynes Dons4–1Bromley27 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 40% · hit W
Stevenage0–1Milton Keynes Dons24 Oct · away
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 37% · hit L
Blackpool2–0Milton Keynes Dons20 Oct · away
Pick: Blackpool 46% · hit W
Milton Keynes Dons2–1Luton17 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 43% · hit Swindon Town
W
Swindon Town2–1Rotherham31 Oct · home
Pick: Swindon Town 49% · hit D
Bristol Rovers0–0Swindon Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 43% · missed W
Barnet1–3Swindon Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed D
Swindon Town1–1Walsall17 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 39% · missed W
Swindon Town3–1Port Vale1 Sep · home
Pick: Swindon Town 49% · hit About this match
Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium MK, Milton Keynes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Milton Keynes Dons win 43.4%, draw 23.5%, Swindon Town win 33.1%. The pick is Milton Keynes Dons win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.7%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.