ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

Minnesota United FC Home · Elo 1,516
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Jose Earthquakes Away · Elo 1,506
Allianz Field, Sao Paulo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Minnesota United FC win
Minnesota United FC winPick
44.1%
Draw
24.1%
San Jose Earthquakes win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Minnesota United FC history69 matches
San Jose Earthquakes history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Minnesota United FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,516 against 1,506. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • San Jose Earthquakes score more

    1.38 goals a game over 69 matches for Minnesota United FC, against 1.82 over 60 for San Jose Earthquakes.

  • Minnesota United FC concede fewer

    Minnesota United FC concede 1.25 a game, San Jose Earthquakes 1.67.

  • San Jose Earthquakes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Minnesota United FC matches, against 65% for San Jose Earthquakes. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.5
ELO
1505.7
69
ELO · Matches
60
1516.5
Current Team ELO
1505.7
1505.7
Current Opponent ELO
1516.5
10.74
Current ELO Difference
-10.74
0.52
Expected score
0.48
69
History Matches
60
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
51.01
Overperformance
51.48
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.41
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
3.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
60
1.36
PPG
1.50
33.3%
Win rate
43.3%
36.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
36.7%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.3%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
25
1.43
PPG
1.40
34.3%
Win rate
44.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
8.0%
25.7%
Loss rate
48.0%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
35
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.82
71.0%
Scoring rate
91.7%
56.5%
BTTS rate
71.7%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.52
68.6%
Scoring rate
92.0%
48.6%
BTTS rate
72.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.94
73.7%
Scoring rate
94.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
66.7%
69
History Matches
60
1.38
Goals Mean
1.82
1.24
Goals Std
1.24
71.0%
Scored 1+ rate
91.7%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.67
71.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.76
65.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.67
73.7%
Conceding rate
72.2%
69
History Matches
60
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.22
Conceded Std
1.39
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
60
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.94
0.23
Stability score
4.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
59
19
Lead Matches
22
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.85
21
Trailing Matches
21
38.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
33
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
1.32
PPG
1.67
31.6%
Win rate
50.0%
36.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
31.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.32
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.28
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.27
Portability PPG Range
0.62
53.31
Portability Score
71.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.74
PPG-0.14
GF-0.44
GA-0.42
PPG-0.35
PPG0.03
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate20.7%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate23.4%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches9
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-4.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.38
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.65
Portability Score-17.86
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.05
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO10.74
Current Opponent ELO-10.74
Current ELO Difference21.49
Expected score0.03
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Minnesota United FC

W
Los Angeles FC1–3Minnesota United FC2 Nov · away
Pick: Los Angeles FC 56% · missed
W
Minnesota United FC3–1Sporting Kansas City29 Oct · home
Pick: Minnesota United FC 66% · hit
D
Houston Dynamo0–0Minnesota United FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Houston Dynamo 51% · missed
W
Minnesota United FC3–2St. Louis City17 Oct · home
Pick: Minnesota United FC 42% · hit
D
Colorado Rapids2–2Minnesota United FC15 Oct · away
Pick: Colorado Rapids 46% · missed

San Jose Earthquakes

W
San Jose Earthquakes2–1Real Salt Lake31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Salt Lake 40% · missed
D
San Jose Earthquakes2–2Colorado Rapids29 Oct · home
Pick: Colorado Rapids 39% · missed
L
FC Dallas3–0San Jose Earthquakes25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Dallas 46% · hit
D
San Jose Earthquakes1–1Nashville SC18 Oct · home
Pick: Nashville SC 51% · missed
D
Real Salt Lake1–1San Jose Earthquakes15 Oct · away
Pick: Real Salt Lake 54% · missed

About this match

Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Allianz Field, Sao Paulo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Minnesota United FC win 44.1%, draw 24.1%, San Jose Earthquakes win 31.7%. The pick is Minnesota United FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.