ScoreProb
Ligue 2 Algeria Round 9 2026

MO Bejaia vs USM Annaba

MO Bejaia Home · Elo 1,556
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
USM Annaba Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MO Bejaia win
MO Bejaia winPick
37.3%
Draw
35.9%
USM Annaba win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.0%
No56.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.6%
Under 2.562.4%

How much we know

MO Bejaia history29 matches
USM Annaba history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why MO Bejaia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MO Bejaia are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,527. On rating alone MO Bejaia would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 29 matches for MO Bejaia, against 1.28 over 43 for USM Annaba.

  • MO Bejaia concede fewer

    MO Bejaia concede 0.72 a game, USM Annaba 0.91.

  • USM Annaba games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of MO Bejaia matches, against 44% for USM Annaba. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
MO Bejaia
USM Annaba
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.4
ELO
1527.0
29
ELO · Matches
43
1556.4
Current Team ELO
1527.0
1527.0
Current Opponent ELO
1556.4
29.42
Current ELO Difference
-29.42
0.54
Expected score
0.46
29
History Matches
43
0.11
Residual Mean
0.02
56.24
Overperformance
51.65
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
43
1.76
PPG
1.51
48.3%
Win rate
41.9%
31.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
20.7%
Loss rate
32.6%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
6.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.6%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
23
2.25
PPG
0.78
68.8%
Win rate
13.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
39.1%
12.5%
Loss rate
47.8%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
16
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.28
75.9%
Scoring rate
62.8%
44.8%
BTTS rate
39.5%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.70
81.3%
Scoring rate
43.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
39.1%
29
History Matches
43
1.38
Goals Mean
1.28
1.27
Goals Std
1.32
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
62.8%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
34.9%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.9%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.72
Goals against per game
0.91
55.2%
Conceding rate
58.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.09
43.8%
Conceding rate
69.6%
29
History Matches
43
0.72
Conceded Mean
0.91
0.78
Conceded Std
0.94
13.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
43
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.53
5.27
Stability score
1.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
43
10
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.94
5
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.0
Rest days
181.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
14
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.21
—
Portability PPG Range
0.42
—
Portability Score
70.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO29.42
PPG0.25
GF0.10
GA-0.18
PPG1.47
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate13.1%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score3.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.42
Current Team ELO29.42
Current Opponent ELO-29.42
Current ELO Difference58.84
Expected score0.08
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance4.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

MO Bejaia

W
MO Bejaia2–1Paradou AC24 Oct · home
Pick: MO Bejaia 41% · hit
L
MSP Batna1–0MO Bejaia19 Oct · away
Pick: MSP Batna 42% · hit
W
MO Bejaia2–0Nrb Beni Oulbene15 Oct · home
Pick: MO Bejaia 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

USM Annaba

W
CR Béni Thour1–2USM Annaba24 Oct · away
Pick: USM Annaba 36% · hit
L
Teleghma2–1USM Annaba13 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

MO Bejaia and USM Annaba meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: MO Bejaia win 37.3%, draw 35.9%, USM Annaba win 26.9%. The pick is MO Bejaia win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.6%. Both teams to score: 44.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.