ScoreProb
Ligue 2 Algeria Round 9 2026

MO Constantine vs US Chaouia

MO Constantine Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
US Chaouia Away · Elo 1,595
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: US Chaouia win
MO Constantine win
28.3%
Draw
26.4%
US Chaouia winPick
45.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.2%
No50.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

MO Constantine history46 matches
US Chaouia history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why US Chaouia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • US Chaouia are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,595 against 1,477. On rating alone US Chaouia would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • US Chaouia score more

    1.07 goals a game over 46 matches for MO Constantine, against 1.59 over 46 for US Chaouia.

  • US Chaouia concede fewer

    MO Constantine concede 1.15 a game, US Chaouia 0.89.

  • US Chaouia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of MO Constantine matches, against 48% for US Chaouia. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
MO Constantine
US Chaouia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.7
ELO
1595.1
46
ELO · Matches
46
1476.7
Current Team ELO
1595.1
1595.1
Current Opponent ELO
1476.7
-118.4
Current ELO Difference
118.4
0.34
Expected score
0.66
46
History Matches
46
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.10
48.25
Overperformance
56.87
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.50
0.80
Goals for per game
3.00
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
46
1.28
PPG
1.83
34.8%
Win rate
54.3%
23.9%
Draw rate
19.6%
41.3%
Loss rate
26.1%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
19.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.70
PPG
1.33
47.8%
Win rate
37.5%
26.1%
Draw rate
20.8%
26.1%
Loss rate
41.7%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.07
Goals for per game
1.59
56.5%
Scoring rate
78.3%
32.6%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.54
73.9%
Scoring rate
75.0%
43.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
46
History Matches
46
1.07
Goals Mean
1.59
1.24
Goals Std
1.42
56.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
28.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
0.89
65.2%
Conceding rate
58.7%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.33
56.5%
Conceding rate
79.2%
46
History Matches
46
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.20
Conceded Std
1.00
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.6%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.77
2.18
Stability score
8.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
46
10
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.95
14
Trailing Matches
9
14.3%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
170.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.53
81.40
Portability Score
65.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-118.4
PPG-0.54
GF-0.52
GA0.26
PPG0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.52
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.02
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.14
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-6.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score16.13
Rest days11.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Current Team ELO-118.4
Current Opponent ELO118.4
Current ELO Difference-236.8
Expected score-0.33
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

MO Constantine

L
Paradou AC5–2MO Constantine30 Oct · away
Pick: Paradou AC 47% · hit
L
MO Constantine0–1Khroub24 Oct · home
Pick: MO Constantine 45% · missed
D
Nrb Beni Oulbene0–0MO Constantine19 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
W
MO Constantine1–0Azazga14 Oct · home
Pick: MO Constantine 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

US Chaouia

L
CA Batna2–0US Chaouia24 Oct · away
Pick: CA Batna 43% · hit
W
US Chaouia1–0Paradou AC13 Oct · home
Pick: US Chaouia 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

MO Constantine and US Chaouia meet in Ligue 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: MO Constantine win 28.3%, draw 26.4%, US Chaouia win 45.3%. The pick is US Chaouia win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.