ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Modena U19 vs Udinese U19

Modena U19 Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Udinese U19 Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Modena U19 win
Modena U19 winPick
56.3%
Draw
18.7%
Udinese U19 win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%

How much we know

Modena U19 history48 matches
Udinese U19 history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Modena U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Modena U19 are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,494. On rating alone Modena U19 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.69 goals a game over 48 matches for Modena U19, against 1.84 over 32 for Udinese U19.

  • Defences are close

    Modena U19 concede 1.52 a game, Udinese U19 1.63.

  • Udinese U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Modena U19 matches, against 78% for Udinese U19. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Modena U19
Udinese U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.3
ELO
1493.9
48
ELO · Matches
32
1543.3
Current Team ELO
1493.9
1493.9
Current Opponent ELO
1543.3
49.40
Current ELO Difference
-49.40
0.57
Expected score
0.43
48
History Matches
32
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.88
Overperformance
49.83
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
2.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
32
1.52
PPG
1.31
41.7%
Win rate
34.4%
27.1%
Draw rate
28.1%
31.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
64.6%
Over 2.5 rate
78.1%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
53.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
15
1.70
PPG
0.80
47.8%
Win rate
13.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
40.0%
26.1%
Loss rate
46.7%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
23
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.69
Goals for per game
1.84
79.2%
Scoring rate
93.8%
70.8%
BTTS rate
71.9%
1.91
Goals for per game
1.33
82.6%
Scoring rate
93.3%
73.9%
BTTS rate
80.0%
48
History Matches
32
1.69
Goals Mean
1.84
1.29
Goals Std
1.06
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
93.8%
52.1%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
1.63
83.3%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.87
82.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
48
History Matches
32
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.17
Conceded Std
1.24
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.3%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.3%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
32
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.76
1.51
Stability score
0.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
30
15
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.64
13
Trailing Matches
4
30.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.23
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
161.0
Rest days
77.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.39
Portability PPG Std
—
0.79
Portability PPG Range
—
55.93
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO49.40
PPG0.21
GF-0.16
GA-0.10
PPG0.90
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score0.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.29
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate30.0%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate5.8%
Trailing Win Rate15.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days83.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO49.40
Current Opponent ELO-49.40
Current ELO Difference98.80
Expected score0.14
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Modena U19

L
Venezia U192–0Modena U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Modena U19 43% · missed
D
Modena U190–0Reggiana U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Modena U19 37% · missed
L
Modena U190–2Cremonese U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Modena U19 78% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Udinese U19

W
Udinese U196–0Mantova U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Udinese U19 66% · hit
L
Udinese U191–2Venezia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Venezia U19 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Modena U19 and Udinese U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Modena U19 win 56.3%, draw 18.7%, Udinese U19 win 25.0%. The pick is Modena U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.8%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.