ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone G Italy Group G - 11 2026

Monastir vs Sarnese

Monastir Home · Elo 1,544
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sarnese Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sarnese win
Monastir win
38.8%
Draw
22.3%
Sarnese winPick
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Monastir history34 matches
Sarnese history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sarnese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Monastir are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,502. On rating alone Monastir would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 34 matches for Monastir, against 1.53 over 53 for Sarnese.

  • Defences are close

    Monastir concede 1.35 a game, Sarnese 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Monastir matches, against 57% for Sarnese. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Monastir
Sarnese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.4
ELO
1501.6
34
ELO · Matches
53
1544.4
Current Team ELO
1501.6
1501.6
Current Opponent ELO
1544.4
42.88
Current ELO Difference
-42.88
0.56
Expected score
0.44
34
History Matches
53
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
54.17
Overperformance
49.94
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
53
1.56
PPG
1.40
44.1%
Win rate
35.8%
23.5%
Draw rate
32.1%
32.4%
Loss rate
32.1%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
27
1.94
PPG
1.19
58.8%
Win rate
29.6%
17.6%
Draw rate
29.6%
23.5%
Loss rate
40.7%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
17
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.53
85.3%
Scoring rate
81.1%
58.8%
BTTS rate
66.0%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.74
94.1%
Scoring rate
88.9%
58.8%
BTTS rate
77.8%
34
History Matches
53
1.56
Goals Mean
1.53
0.91
Goals Std
1.40
85.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
55.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
1.47
73.5%
Conceding rate
75.5%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.96
64.7%
Conceding rate
85.2%
34
History Matches
53
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.11
Conceded Std
1.30
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.80
2.92
Stability score
0.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
53
11
Lead Matches
19
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.81
8
Trailing Matches
12
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
176.0
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
12
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.44
—
Portability PPG Range
0.89
—
Portability Score
53.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO42.88
PPG0.16
GF0.03
GA-0.12
PPG0.76
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-19
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate4.2%
Scored 2+ rate18.1%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate0.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.51
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score2.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days75.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO42.88
Current Opponent ELO-42.88
Current ELO Difference85.75
Expected score0.12
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Monastir

L
Unipomezia4–2Monastir1 Nov · away
Pick: Unipomezia 42% · hit
D
Monastir2–2Trastevere24 Oct · home
Pick: Trastevere 44% · missed
L
Certosa V. Campagnano3–2Monastir18 Oct · away
Pick: Monastir 42% · missed
W
Budoni1–5Monastir4 Oct · away
Pick: Monastir 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sarnese

L
Aranova2–1Sarnese25 Oct · away
Pick: Sarnese 35% · missed
W
Sarnese1–0Città di Anagni18 Oct · home
Pick: Sarnese 67% · hit
W
Sarnese2–1Paganese4 Oct · home
Pick: Sarnese 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Monastir and Sarnese meet in Serie D - Girone G on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Monastir win 38.8%, draw 22.3%, Sarnese win 38.9%. The pick is Sarnese win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.