ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Montañesa vs Tona

Montañesa Home · Elo 1,471
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tona Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tona win
Montañesa win
33.0%
Draw
30.1%
Tona winPick
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%

How much we know

Montañesa history48 matches
Tona history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,471 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.06 goals a game over 48 matches for Montañesa, against 1.04 over 51 for Tona.

  • Tona concede fewer

    Montañesa concede 1.19 a game, Tona 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Montañesa matches, against 39% for Tona. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montañesa
Tona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.3
ELO
1495.5
48
ELO · Matches
51
1471.3
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1471.3
-24.21
Current ELO Difference
24.21
0.47
Expected score
0.53
48
History Matches
51
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.87
Overperformance
49.55
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
51
1.27
PPG
1.31
33.3%
Win rate
31.4%
27.1%
Draw rate
37.3%
39.6%
Loss rate
31.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.2%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.88
PPG
1.19
54.2%
Win rate
26.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
38.5%
20.8%
Loss rate
34.6%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.04
68.8%
Scoring rate
60.8%
43.8%
BTTS rate
41.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.96
83.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
45.8%
BTTS rate
42.3%
48
History Matches
51
1.06
Goals Mean
1.04
0.94
Goals Std
1.07
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
60.8%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.00
62.5%
Conceding rate
56.9%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.12
54.2%
Conceding rate
61.5%
48
History Matches
51
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.22
Conceded Std
1.14
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.2%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.2%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.52
1.07
Stability score
0.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
51
13
Lead Matches
11
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
9
13.3%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
182.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.02
80.00
Portability Score
97.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-24.21
PPG-0.04
GF0.02
GA0.19
PPG0.68
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate8.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate9.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.57
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate11.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-17.96
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO-24.21
Current Opponent ELO24.21
Current ELO Difference-48.41
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Montañesa

W
San Cristóbal0–2Montañesa1 Nov · away
Pick: San Cristóbal 37% · missed
D
Montañesa2–2Vilassar Mar25 Oct · home
Pick: Montañesa 40% · missed
L
Cerdanyola del Vallès1–0Montañesa18 Oct · away
Pick: Cerdanyola del Vallès 40% · hit
W
Montañesa2–0L'Escala14 Oct · home
Pick: Montañesa 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tona

W
Tona1–0Martinenc1 Nov · home
Pick: Tona 62% · hit
D
L'Escala0–0Tona25 Oct · away
Pick: L'Escala 39% · missed
W
Tona1–0Europa II18 Oct · home
Pick: Tona 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Montañesa and Tona meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Montañesa win 33.0%, draw 30.1%, Tona win 36.8%. The pick is Tona win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.4%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.