ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Vilassar Mar vs San Cristóbal

Vilassar Mar Home · Elo 1,438
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Cristóbal Away · Elo 1,439
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vilassar Mar win
Vilassar Mar winPick
39.7%
Draw
33.1%
San Cristóbal win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%

How much we know

Vilassar Mar history49 matches
San Cristóbal history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Vilassar Mar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,438 against 1,439. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.92 goals a game over 49 matches for Vilassar Mar, against 1.00 over 49 for San Cristóbal.

  • Defences are close

    Vilassar Mar concede 1.39 a game, San Cristóbal 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Vilassar Mar matches, against 39% for San Cristóbal. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vilassar Mar
San Cristóbal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1438.2
ELO
1439.2
49
ELO · Matches
49
1438.2
Current Team ELO
1439.2
1439.2
Current Opponent ELO
1438.2
-1.01
Current ELO Difference
1.01
0.50
Expected score
0.50
49
History Matches
49
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
45.83
Overperformance
45.83
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
0.96
PPG
1.02
22.4%
Win rate
22.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
34.7%
49.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
24
1.28
PPG
0.83
36.0%
Win rate
16.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
44.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.92
Goals for per game
1.00
53.1%
Scoring rate
57.1%
40.8%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.71
68.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
48.0%
BTTS rate
41.7%
49
History Matches
49
0.92
Goals Mean
1.00
1.07
Goals Std
1.23
53.1%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
26.5%
Scored 2+ rate
24.5%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.43
77.6%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.58
72.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.05
Conceded Std
1.28
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
46.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
46.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.64
5.07
Stability score
2.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
8
52.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
17
14.3%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.3
Rest days
183.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.31
76.30
Portability Score
76.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-1.01
PPG-0.06
GF-0.08
GA-0.04
PPG0.45
PPG1.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate2.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score2.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-0.11
Rest days-0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO-1.01
Current Opponent ELO1.01
Current ELO Difference-2.01
Expected score0.00
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vilassar Mar

D
Cerdanyola del Vallès1–1Vilassar Mar1 Nov · away
Pick: Cerdanyola del Vallès 38% · missed
D
Montañesa2–2Vilassar Mar25 Oct · away
Pick: Montañesa 40% · missed
W
Vilassar Mar4–0Martinenc18 Oct · home
Pick: Vilassar Mar 68% · hit
L
Vilassar Mar1–6Europa II4 Oct · home
Pick: Vilassar Mar 39% · missed
L
Vilassar Mar0–2Espanyol II30 Aug · home
Pick: Espanyol II 43% · hit

San Cristóbal

L
San Cristóbal0–2Montañesa1 Nov · home
Pick: San Cristóbal 37% · missed
L
Martinenc5–1San Cristóbal25 Oct · away
Pick: Martinenc 37% · hit
D
San Cristóbal1–1L'Escala18 Oct · home
Pick: L'Escala 40% · missed
L
San Cristóbal0–5Grama14 Oct · home
Pick: Grama 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vilassar Mar and San Cristóbal meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vilassar Mar win 39.7%, draw 33.1%, San Cristóbal win 27.2%. The pick is Vilassar Mar win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.