ScoreProb
League One Scotland Round 14 2026

Montrose vs East Fife

Montrose Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
East Fife Away · Elo 1,471
Links Park, Montrose Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: East Fife win
Montrose win
35.8%
Draw
21.7%
East Fife winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Montrose history79 matches
East Fife history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why East Fife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montrose are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,471. On rating alone Montrose would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Montrose score more

    1.53 goals a game over 79 matches for Montrose, against 1.25 over 77 for East Fife.

  • East Fife concede fewer

    Montrose concede 1.72 a game, East Fife 1.49.

  • Montrose games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Montrose matches, against 49% for East Fife. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montrose
East Fife
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.5
ELO
1471.4
79
ELO · Matches
77
1503.5
Current Team ELO
1471.4
1471.4
Current Opponent ELO
1503.5
32.04
Current ELO Difference
-32.04
0.55
Expected score
0.45
79
History Matches
77
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.85
Overperformance
48.85
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
77
1.33
PPG
1.29
36.7%
Win rate
35.1%
22.8%
Draw rate
23.4%
40.5%
Loss rate
41.6%
89.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
38.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
37
1.56
PPG
0.89
46.5%
Win rate
21.6%
16.3%
Draw rate
24.3%
37.2%
Loss rate
54.1%
90.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
37.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
43
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.25
75.9%
Scoring rate
67.5%
59.5%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.72
Goals for per game
0.84
69.8%
Scoring rate
59.5%
51.2%
BTTS rate
45.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
79
History Matches
77
1.53
Goals Mean
1.25
1.38
Goals Std
1.16
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
67.5%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
22.8%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
0.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
1.49
82.3%
Conceding rate
76.6%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.65
81.4%
Conceding rate
81.1%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
79
History Matches
77
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.25
Conceded Std
1.34
53.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
25.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.5%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
77
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.85
2.52
Stability score
2.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
77
29
Lead Matches
16
72.4%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.88
30
Trailing Matches
32
20.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
65
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
9
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
9
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.63
Portability PPG Range
1.00
44.39
Portability Score
58.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.04
PPG0.04
GF0.28
GA0.23
PPG-0.50
PPG0.67
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate14.2%
Conceded 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.17
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-14.48
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO32.04
Current Opponent ELO-32.04
Current ELO Difference64.08
Expected score0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Montrose

L
Inverness CT1–0Montrose3 Nov · away
Pick: Inverness CT 56% · hit
D
Hamilton Academical1–1Montrose31 Oct · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 62% · missed
W
Montrose3–0Peterhead24 Oct · home
Pick: Montrose 40% · hit
D
East Kilbride1–1Montrose17 Oct · away
Pick: East Kilbride 59% · missed
W
Montrose2–1Dundee United II13 Oct · home
Pick: Montrose 83% · hit

East Fife

W
East Fife2–0Queen of the South31 Oct · home
Pick: East Fife 45% · hit
L
Hamilton Academical2–1East Fife24 Oct · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 62% · hit
L
East Fife0–3Alloa Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 48% · hit
L
Cumbernauld Colts2–1East Fife13 Oct · away
Pick: East Fife 48% · missed
D
Airdrie United0–0East Fife29 Aug · away
Pick: East Fife 45% · missed

About this match

Montrose and East Fife meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Links Park, Montrose. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Montrose win 35.8%, draw 21.7%, East Fife win 42.5%. The pick is East Fife win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.