ScoreProb
League One Scotland Round 14 2026

Queen of the South vs East Kilbride

Queen of the South Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
East Kilbride Away · Elo 1,590
Palmerston Park, Dumfries Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: East Kilbride win
Queen of the South win
30.3%
Draw
21.1%
East Kilbride winPick
48.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.0%
No40.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%

How much we know

Queen of the South history78 matches
East Kilbride history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why East Kilbride are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • East Kilbride are rated 106 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,484. On rating alone East Kilbride would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • East Kilbride score far more

    1.50 goals a game over 78 matches for Queen of the South, against 2.36 over 75 for East Kilbride.

  • Queen of the South concede fewer

    Queen of the South concede 1.36 a game, East Kilbride 1.53.

  • East Kilbride games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Queen of the South matches, against 77% for East Kilbride. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Queen of the South
East Kilbride
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.4
ELO
1590.4
78
ELO · Matches
75
1484.4
Current Team ELO
1590.4
1590.4
Current Opponent ELO
1484.4
-106.0
Current ELO Difference
106.0
0.35
Expected score
0.65
78
History Matches
75
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.57
Overperformance
54.74
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
3.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
75
1.36
PPG
1.88
37.2%
Win rate
57.3%
24.4%
Draw rate
16.0%
38.5%
Loss rate
26.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
77.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
57.3%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
36
1.61
PPG
1.64
46.3%
Win rate
47.2%
22.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
31.7%
Loss rate
30.6%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
39.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
41
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
2.36
76.9%
Scoring rate
89.3%
59.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
1.68
Goals for per game
2.08
78.0%
Scoring rate
86.1%
56.1%
BTTS rate
72.2%
0.33
Goals for per game
2.25
33.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
78
History Matches
75
1.50
Goals Mean
2.36
1.28
Goals Std
1.58
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
89.3%
39.7%
Scored 2+ rate
65.3%
21.8%
Scored 3+ rate
46.7%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
2.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.53
78.2%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.58
75.6%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
78
History Matches
75
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.12
Conceded Std
1.35
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.3%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
75
0.98
Result entropy
0.88
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.33
1.75
Stability score
12.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
75
22
Lead Matches
36
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.84
27
Trailing Matches
19
18.5%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
67
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
9
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
3
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
12
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.64
Portability PPG Range
0.59
45.97
Portability Score
70.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-106.0
PPG-0.52
GF-0.86
GA-0.17
PPG-1.75
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.86
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches3
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-10.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range1.05
Portability Score-24.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO-106.0
Current Opponent ELO106.0
Current ELO Difference-212.1
Expected score-0.30
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Queen of the South

L
Arbroath1–0Queen of the South3 Nov · away
Pick: Arbroath 39% · hit
L
East Fife2–0Queen of the South31 Oct · away
Pick: East Fife 45% · hit
W
Alloa Athletic0–1Queen of the South24 Oct · away
Pick: Alloa Athletic 51% · missed
L
Queen of the South1–7Ross County17 Oct · home
Pick: Ross County 43% · hit
L
Berwick Rangers1–0Queen of the South13 Oct · away
Pick: Queen of the South 54% · missed

East Kilbride

W
East Kilbride7–3Stirling Albion3 Nov · home
Pick: East Kilbride 52% · hit
L
East Kilbride1–2Ross County31 Oct · home
Pick: East Kilbride 40% · missed
D
East Kilbride1–1Montrose17 Oct · home
Pick: East Kilbride 59% · missed
W
East Kilbride2–1Kelty Hearts13 Oct · home
Pick: East Kilbride 62% · hit
L
Ross County4–0East Kilbride29 Aug · away
Pick: Ross County 44% · hit

About this match

Queen of the South and East Kilbride meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Palmerston Park, Dumfries. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Queen of the South win 30.3%, draw 21.1%, East Kilbride win 48.7%. The pick is East Kilbride win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.3%. Both teams to score: 60.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.