ScoreProb
1. Division Norway Round 30 2026

Moss vs Ranheim

Moss Home · Elo 1,433
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ranheim Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Moss win
Moss winPick
43.0%
Draw
19.4%
Ranheim win
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.4%
No34.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%

How much we know

Moss history73 matches
Ranheim history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Moss are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ranheim are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,498 against 1,433. On rating alone Ranheim would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Ranheim score more

    1.52 goals a game over 73 matches for Moss, against 1.91 over 65 for Ranheim.

  • Defences are close

    Moss concede 2.07 a game, Ranheim 1.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of Moss matches, against 77% for Ranheim. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Moss
Ranheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.6
ELO
1498.0
73
ELO · Matches
65
1432.6
Current Team ELO
1498.0
1498.0
Current Opponent ELO
1432.6
-65.40
Current ELO Difference
65.40
0.41
Expected score
0.59
73
History Matches
65
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
45.06
Overperformance
49.78
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
3.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.30
Goals against per game
2.70
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
65
1.01
PPG
1.38
27.4%
Win rate
40.0%
19.2%
Draw rate
18.5%
53.4%
Loss rate
41.5%
94.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.7%
74.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
46.6%
Over 3.5 rate
49.2%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
33
1.55
PPG
1.24
44.8%
Win rate
36.4%
20.7%
Draw rate
15.2%
34.5%
Loss rate
48.5%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.8%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
29
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.91
79.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
71.2%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.73
89.7%
Scoring rate
75.8%
72.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.61
Goals for per game
2.44
88.9%
Scoring rate
88.9%
83.3%
BTTS rate
83.3%
73
History Matches
65
1.52
Goals Mean
1.91
1.19
Goals Std
1.60
79.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
45.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.3%
20.5%
Scored 3+ rate
33.8%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.07
Goals against per game
1.91
90.4%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.72
Goals against per game
2.00
82.8%
Conceding rate
84.8%
2.28
Goals against per game
2.50
94.4%
Conceding rate
94.4%
73
History Matches
65
2.07
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.26
Conceded Std
1.41
65.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.8%
34.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.2%
1.72
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
9.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
9.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
65
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.21
8.40
Stability score
5.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
65
21
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.87
28
Trailing Matches
26
21.4%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.00
PPG
1.28
27.8%
Win rate
38.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
11.1%
55.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
94.4%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.28
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.06
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.29
Portability PPG Range
1.67
52.57
Portability Score
45.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-65.40
PPG-0.37
GF-0.39
GA0.16
PPG-0.28
PPG0.31
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate2.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score3.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.99
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.61
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score6.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.29
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-65.40
Current Opponent ELO65.40
Current ELO Difference-130.8
Expected score-0.19
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Moss

L
Stromsgodset3–0Moss1 Nov · away
Pick: Stromsgodset 59% · hit
L
Moss1–3Asane25 Oct · home
Pick: Moss 45% · missed
L
Lyn1–0Moss18 Oct · away
Pick: Lyn 46% · hit
D
Moss0–0Egersund14 Oct · home
Pick: Egersund 44% · missed
L
Moss0–2Kongsvinger5 Oct · home
Pick: Kongsvinger 58% · hit

Ranheim

W
Ranheim2–1Sogndal1 Nov · home
Pick: Ranheim 50% · hit
L
Ranheim2–5Fredrikstad28 Oct · home
Pick: Fredrikstad 43% · hit
W
Raufoss1–3Ranheim24 Oct · away
Pick: Raufoss 41% · missed
W
Ranheim4–2Bryne18 Oct · home
Pick: Bryne 42% · missed
D
hodd1–1Ranheim14 Oct · away
Pick: hodd 44% · missed

About this match

Moss and Ranheim meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Moss win 43.0%, draw 19.4%, Ranheim win 37.6%. The pick is Moss win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.2%. Both teams to score: 65.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.