ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Relegation Group - 6 2026

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

Mushuc Runa SC Home · Elo 1,487
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Delfin SC Away · Elo 1,440
Estadio Bellavista, Ambato Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mushuc Runa SC win
Mushuc Runa SC winPick
52.2%
Draw
26.7%
Delfin SC win
21.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Mushuc Runa SC history66 matches
Delfin SC history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mushuc Runa SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mushuc Runa SC are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,487 against 1,440. On rating alone Mushuc Runa SC would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Mushuc Runa SC score far more

    1.24 goals a game over 66 matches for Mushuc Runa SC, against 0.77 over 60 for Delfin SC.

  • Defences are close

    Mushuc Runa SC concede 1.30 a game, Delfin SC 1.30.

  • Mushuc Runa SC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Mushuc Runa SC matches, against 33% for Delfin SC. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mushuc Runa SC
Delfin SC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.1
ELO
1439.9
66
ELO · Matches
60
1487.1
Current Team ELO
1439.9
1439.9
Current Opponent ELO
1487.1
47.24
Current ELO Difference
-47.24
0.57
Expected score
0.43
66
History Matches
60
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.08
Overperformance
46.17
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
60
1.24
PPG
1.02
31.8%
Win rate
23.3%
28.8%
Draw rate
31.7%
39.4%
Loss rate
45.0%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
31
1.63
PPG
0.68
43.8%
Win rate
12.9%
31.3%
Draw rate
29.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
58.1%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
32
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
0.77
75.8%
Scoring rate
53.3%
57.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.41
Goals for per game
0.71
81.3%
Scoring rate
48.4%
56.3%
BTTS rate
38.7%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.65
70.8%
Scoring rate
53.8%
58.3%
BTTS rate
34.6%
66
History Matches
60
1.24
Goals Mean
0.77
1.07
Goals Std
0.82
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
53.3%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
1.7%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
71.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.81
62.5%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.08
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
66
History Matches
60
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.15
Conceded Std
1.45
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
60
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.69
0.80
Stability score
3.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
9
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
44.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.56
18
Trailing Matches
18
16.7%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
26
1.25
PPG
0.92
29.2%
Win rate
23.1%
37.5%
Draw rate
23.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
53.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
38.5%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
26.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
24
Current Competition Matches
26
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.92
-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.42
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.02
1.34
Portability PPG Range
0.05
45.93
Portability Score
95.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO47.24
PPG0.23
GF0.48
GA0.00
PPG0.33
PPG0.95
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate22.4%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-2.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate43.1%
Lead Points Retention0.36
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.30
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.30
Portability Score-49.71
Rest days1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO47.24
Current Opponent ELO-47.24
Current ELO Difference94.48
Expected score0.14
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mushuc Runa SC

L
Mushuc Runa SC2–3Manta FC3 Nov · home
Pick: Mushuc Runa SC 57% · missed
L
Tecnico Universitario3–0Mushuc Runa SC26 Oct · away
Pick: Mushuc Runa SC 47% · missed
D
Mushuc Runa SC1–1Orense SC19 Oct · home
Pick: Mushuc Runa SC 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Delfin SC

L
Delfin SC0–3Independiente del Valle29 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 40% · hit
L
Orense SC4–0Delfin SC24 Oct · away
Pick: Orense SC 48% · hit
W
Delfin SC1–0Tecnico Universitario1 Sep · home
Pick: Delfin SC 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mushuc Runa SC win 52.2%, draw 26.7%, Delfin SC win 21.1%. The pick is Mushuc Runa SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.