ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Placement Group - 6 2026

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

Leones del Norte Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guayaquil City FC Away · Elo 1,528
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leones del Norte win
Leones del Norte winPick
38.7%
Draw
34.7%
Guayaquil City FC win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.1%
Under 2.560.9%

How much we know

Leones del Norte history60 matches
Guayaquil City FC history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Leones del Norte are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,541 against 1,528. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Guayaquil City FC score more

    1.08 goals a game over 60 matches for Leones del Norte, against 1.23 over 56 for Guayaquil City FC.

  • Defences are close

    Leones del Norte concede 0.95 a game, Guayaquil City FC 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    32% of Leones del Norte matches, against 38% for Guayaquil City FC. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.4
ELO
1527.8
60
ELO · Matches
56
1541.4
Current Team ELO
1527.8
1527.8
Current Opponent ELO
1541.4
13.58
Current ELO Difference
-13.58
0.52
Expected score
0.48
60
History Matches
56
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.31
Overperformance
51.50
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
56
1.50
PPG
1.48
38.3%
Win rate
39.3%
35.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
26.7%
Loss rate
30.4%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
31.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.76
PPG
1.17
44.8%
Win rate
27.6%
41.4%
Draw rate
34.5%
13.8%
Loss rate
37.9%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
20.7%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.23
71.7%
Scoring rate
69.6%
43.3%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.97
79.3%
Scoring rate
65.5%
44.8%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.00
72.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
48.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
56
1.08
Goals Mean
1.23
0.95
Goals Std
1.21
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
1.00
58.3%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.14
51.7%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.21
68.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
56
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Conceded Std
0.98
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
56
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.44
1.01
Stability score
0.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
14
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.74
10
Trailing Matches
17
30.0%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
29.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
1.28
PPG
1.21
32.0%
Win rate
29.2%
32.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
36.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
54.2%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
25
Current Competition Matches
24
1.28
Current Competition PPG
1.21
-0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.21
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.05
Portability PPG Range
1.13
53.14
Portability Score
52.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.58
PPG0.02
GF-0.15
GA-0.05
PPG0.07
PPG0.59
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate2.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.08
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score0.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.55
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate18.1%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.29
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.13
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score1.03
Rest days0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO13.58
Current Opponent ELO-13.58
Current ELO Difference27.16
Expected score0.04
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leones del Norte

L
Emelec2–1Leones del Norte30 Aug · away
Pick: Emelec 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guayaquil City FC

D
Guayaquil City FC0–0Libertad1 Nov · home
Pick: Guayaquil City FC 44% · missed
W
Guayaquil City FC2–1LDU de Quito29 Aug · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Leones del Norte win 38.7%, draw 34.7%, Guayaquil City FC win 26.6%. The pick is Leones del Norte win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.1%. Both teams to score: 46.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.