ScoreProb
Super League Zambia Round 7 2026

Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers

Mutondo Stars Home · Elo 1,483
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mufulira Wanderers Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Mutondo Stars win
35.5%
DrawPick
39.5%
Mufulira Wanderers win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.5%
No59.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.531.4%
Under 2.568.6%

How much we know

Mutondo Stars history46 matches
Mufulira Wanderers history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,483 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.67 goals a game over 46 matches for Mutondo Stars, against 0.70 over 46 for Mufulira Wanderers.

  • Mufulira Wanderers concede fewer

    Mutondo Stars concede 0.91 a game, Mufulira Wanderers 0.76.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    20% of Mutondo Stars matches, against 15% for Mufulira Wanderers. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mutondo Stars
Mufulira Wanderers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.3
ELO
1500.2
46
ELO · Matches
46
1483.3
Current Team ELO
1500.2
1500.2
Current Opponent ELO
1483.3
-16.92
Current ELO Difference
16.92
0.48
Expected score
0.52
46
History Matches
46
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.52
Overperformance
50.36
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
0.60
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
46
1.13
PPG
1.39
23.9%
Win rate
41.3%
41.3%
Draw rate
15.2%
34.8%
Loss rate
43.5%
54.3%
Over 1.5 rate
39.1%
19.6%
Over 2.5 rate
15.2%
4.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.50
PPG
1.05
40.9%
Win rate
31.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
9.1%
31.8%
Loss rate
59.1%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
40.9%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
9.1%
4.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.67
Goals for per game
0.70
52.2%
Scoring rate
50.0%
37.0%
BTTS rate
19.6%
0.86
Goals for per game
0.45
63.6%
Scoring rate
36.4%
36.4%
BTTS rate
13.6%
46
History Matches
46
0.67
Goals Mean
0.70
0.75
Goals Std
0.80
52.2%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
13.0%
Scored 2+ rate
17.4%
2.2%
Scored 3+ rate
2.2%
0.86
Venue Goals Mean
0.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.91
Goals against per game
0.76
65.2%
Conceding rate
60.9%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.00
54.5%
Conceding rate
72.7%
46
History Matches
46
0.91
Conceded Mean
0.76
0.80
Conceded Std
0.70
23.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.2%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
63.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
63.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.11
Goal Difference Std
1.24
2.18
Stability score
7.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
46
10
Lead Matches
10
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.93
12
Trailing Matches
17
41.7%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
165.0
Rest days
166.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.33
80.19
Portability Score
75.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-16.92
PPG-0.26
GF-0.02
GA0.15
PPG0.45
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches0
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-5.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate24.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score5.06
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-16.92
Current Opponent ELO16.92
Current ELO Difference-33.83
Expected score-0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mutondo Stars

D
Mutondo Stars1–1Roan United1 Nov · home
Pick: Mutondo Stars 60% · missed
L
ZESCO United5–0Mutondo Stars24 Oct · away
Pick: ZESCO United 50% · hit
L
Chirundu Utd3–0Mutondo Stars18 Oct · away
Pick: Chirundu Utd 36% · hit
L
Mutondo Stars1–3Red Arrows4 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mufulira Wanderers

L
Green Buffaloes1–0Mufulira Wanderers1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers meet in Super League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Mutondo Stars win 35.5%, draw 39.5%, Mufulira Wanderers win 25.0%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 31.4%. Both teams to score: 40.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.