ScoreProb
Prva Liga Serbia Round 17 2026

Naftagas vs OFK Vršac

Naftagas Home · Elo 1,588
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
OFK Vršac Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: OFK Vršac win
Naftagas win
37.0%
Draw
25.5%
OFK Vršac winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.8%
Under 2.555.2%

How much we know

Naftagas history50 matches
OFK Vršac history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why OFK Vršac are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Naftagas are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,526. On rating alone Naftagas would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Naftagas score far more

    1.58 goals a game over 50 matches for Naftagas, against 0.87 over 63 for OFK Vršac.

  • Defences are close

    Naftagas concede 1.02 a game, OFK Vršac 1.10.

  • Naftagas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Naftagas matches, against 37% for OFK Vršac. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Naftagas
OFK Vršac@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.5
ELO
1525.9
50
ELO · Matches
63
1588.5
Current Team ELO
1525.9
1525.9
Current Opponent ELO
1588.5
62.57
Current ELO Difference
-62.57
0.59
Expected score
0.41
50
History Matches
63
0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
55.96
Overperformance
51.14
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
63
1.86
PPG
1.21
58.0%
Win rate
28.6%
12.0%
Draw rate
34.9%
30.0%
Loss rate
36.5%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.5%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
34
2.08
PPG
1.21
66.7%
Win rate
29.4%
8.3%
Draw rate
32.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
38.2%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
52.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
24
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
0.87
76.0%
Scoring rate
54.0%
42.0%
BTTS rate
38.1%
1.79
Goals for per game
0.85
83.3%
Scoring rate
52.9%
41.7%
BTTS rate
35.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
50
History Matches
63
1.58
Goals Mean
0.87
1.37
Goals Std
0.98
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
54.0%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.4%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Conceding rate
63.5%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.29
58.3%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
50
History Matches
63
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.09
Conceded Std
1.15
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
63
0.85
Result entropy
1.00
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.39
15.21
Stability score
0.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
61
18
Lead Matches
12
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.78
6
Trailing Matches
18
33.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.92
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.40
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.42
Portability PPG Range
1.64
46.27
Portability Score
44.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO62.57
PPG0.65
GF0.71
GA-0.08
PPG-1.60
PPG0.88
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate22.0%
Scored 2+ rate18.6%
Scored 3+ rate17.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score14.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score1.86
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.16
Current Team ELO62.57
Current Opponent ELO-62.57
Current ELO Difference125.1
Expected score0.18
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Naftagas

W
Naftagas1–0Loznica1 Nov · home
Pick: Naftagas 43% · hit
W
Naftagas2–1FK Vozdovac24 Oct · home
Pick: Naftagas 40% · hit
D
Semendrija 19241–1Naftagas17 Oct · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 56% · missed
W
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV0–6Naftagas4 Oct · away
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 44% · missed
L
OFK Bor 19192–1Naftagas30 Aug · away
Pick: Naftagas 49% · missed

OFK Vršac

W
OFK Vršac2–1TSC Backa Topola1 Nov · home
Pick: OFK Vršac 40% · hit
L
OFK Vršac0–1OFK Beograd28 Oct · home
Pick: OFK Beograd 39% · hit
D
Loznica1–1OFK Vršac24 Oct · away
Pick: Loznica 36% · missed
W
OFK Vršac1–0Teleoptik16 Oct · home
Pick: OFK Vršac 51% · hit
D
OFK Vršac0–0Metalac GM4 Oct · home
Pick: OFK Vršac 47% · missed

About this match

Naftagas and OFK Vršac meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Naftagas win 37.0%, draw 25.5%, OFK Vršac win 37.5%. The pick is OFK Vršac win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.8%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.