ScoreProb
Prva Liga Serbia Round 17 2026

Semendrija 1924 vs Grafičar

Semendrija 1924 Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grafičar Away · Elo 1,476
Stadion FK Smederevo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Semendrija 1924 win
Semendrija 1924 winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.4%
Grafičar win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Semendrija 1924 history65 matches
Grafičar history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Semendrija 1924 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Semendrija 1924 are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,476. On rating alone Semendrija 1924 would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Semendrija 1924 score more

    1.31 goals a game over 65 matches for Semendrija 1924, against 1.11 over 71 for Grafičar.

  • Semendrija 1924 concede fewer

    Semendrija 1924 concede 1.02 a game, Grafičar 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Semendrija 1924 matches, against 42% for Grafičar. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Semendrija 1924
Grafičar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.3
ELO
1476.2
65
ELO · Matches
71
1554.3
Current Team ELO
1476.2
1476.2
Current Opponent ELO
1554.3
78.01
Current ELO Difference
-78.01
0.61
Expected score
0.39
65
History Matches
71
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.55
Overperformance
48.97
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.30
2.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
71
1.48
PPG
1.32
40.0%
Win rate
33.8%
27.7%
Draw rate
31.0%
32.3%
Loss rate
35.2%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
41.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.7%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
34
1.71
PPG
1.18
47.1%
Win rate
29.4%
29.4%
Draw rate
29.4%
23.5%
Loss rate
41.2%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
34
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.11
60.0%
Scoring rate
66.2%
40.0%
BTTS rate
46.5%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.85
61.8%
Scoring rate
58.8%
38.2%
BTTS rate
41.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
71
1.31
Goals Mean
1.11
1.45
Goals Std
1.04
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
36.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.0%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.20
63.1%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.29
58.8%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
65
History Matches
71
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Conceded Std
1.13
27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.68
1.05
Stability score
0.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
71
18
Lead Matches
17
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.80
17
Trailing Matches
22
17.6%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
74.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.80
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.95
55.42
Portability Score
59.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO78.01
PPG0.15
GF0.20
GA-0.18
PPG1.40
PPG0.53
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate5.9%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate18.0%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-3.76
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO78.01
Current Opponent ELO-78.01
Current ELO Difference156.0
Expected score0.22
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Semendrija 1924

L
Borac Cacak2–0Semendrija 19241 Nov · away
Pick: Borac Cacak 37% · hit
L
Semendrija 19242–3TSC Backa Topola28 Oct · home
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 39% · hit
L
Dubočica1–0Semendrija 192423 Oct · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 44% · missed
D
Semendrija 19241–1Naftagas17 Oct · home
Pick: Semendrija 1924 56% · missed
L
Loznica1–0Semendrija 192412 Oct · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 40% · missed

Grafičar

W
Grafičar2–0Napredak2 Nov · home
Pick: Grafičar 44% · hit
W
Grafičar2–0IMT Novi Beograd28 Oct · home
Pick: Grafičar 40% · hit
L
Grafičar0–2FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV24 Oct · home
Pick: Grafičar 46% · missed
L
Jedinstvo Ub3–1Grafičar17 Oct · away
Pick: Grafičar 41% · missed
L
TSC Backa Topola4–1Grafičar5 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit

About this match

Semendrija 1924 and Grafičar meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion FK Smederevo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Semendrija 1924 win 50.3%, draw 23.4%, Grafičar win 26.3%. The pick is Semendrija 1924 win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.